DOJ Updates Marijuana Classification Policy
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 23 2026
0mins
Source: stocktwits
- Policy Change Context: The U.S. Department of Justice has formally proposed reclassifying state-licensed medical marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, which, while not legalizing marijuana, reduces regulatory hurdles and offers tax relief for licensed operators, expected to enhance medical research and expand access to treatments.
- Market Reaction: Following the announcement, shares of Tilray (TLRY), Canopy Growth (CGC), Aurora Cannabis (ACB), and IGC Pharma (IGC) fell between 2-5% in morning trading despite previous gains, indicating a cautious market response to the policy change.
- Investor Sentiment: Retail sentiment on Stocktwits for TLRY, CGC, ACB, and IGC turned ‘extremely bullish’ with message volumes surging, reflecting optimistic expectations for the cannabis industry's revival, with some users claiming Tilray will become the “king of the U.S. cannabis market.”
- Akanda Corp. Outperformance: In contrast to major cannabis stocks, Akanda Corp. (AKAN) saw a 6% increase, extending a remarkable 215% surge from the previous session, with investors debating whether this explosive rally is driven by optimism over cannabis reclassification or the stock's low float.
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Analyst Views on TLRY
Wall Street analysts forecast TLRY stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 5.460
Low
8.50
Averages
9.57
High
10.00
Current: 5.460
Low
8.50
Averages
9.57
High
10.00
About TLRY
Tilray Brands, Inc. is a lifestyle consumer products company, which focuses on providing research-backed medical cannabis products to physicians, pharmacies, and patients around the world. The Company operates in four segments, which include cannabis operations, which encompasses the production, distribution, sale, co-manufacturing, and advisory services of both medical and adult-use cannabis. Beverage operations, which encompasses the production, marketing, and sale of beverage products. Distribution operations, which encompasses the purchase and resale of pharmaceutical products to customers, and Wellness products, which encompasses wellness and better-for-you foods and beverages. It offers a portfolio of brands and products across medical and adult-use cannabis, craft beer, spirits, beverages, and hemp foods. Its adult-use portfolio offers a range of products, from flowers to beverages. Its beverage-alcohol portfolio includes a selection of craft beer, spirits, and beverages.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Dilutive Share Issuance: The company has repeatedly attempted to shore up its finances through dilutive secondary share issues, which have diluted existing shareholders' stakes and driven away potential investors, negatively affecting stock performance.
- Acquisition of MTL Cannabis: Canopy Growth completed its acquisition of MTL Cannabis in March for C$125 million, and while MTL has posted some profits in the past four quarters, the deal is unlikely to significantly improve Canopy's financial situation, failing to fundamentally alter its financial struggles.
- Market Environment Challenges: Regulatory bottlenecks in Canada and competition from gray and black markets continue to hinder market development, and despite the U.S. market's potential, legal uncertainties and fierce domestic competition pose significant challenges for Canopy Growth in achieving growth.
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- Financial Struggles: The company's latest quarterly revenue was C$54.5 million, with a net loss nearing C$45.8 million; although the loss has narrowed, ongoing financial pressures raise doubts about future profitability, potentially leading to more dilutive share issues.
- MTL Cannabis Acquisition: Canopy Growth completed its acquisition of MTL Cannabis in March for C$125 million (US$91 million), and while MTL has reported profits in the past four quarters, its revenue is unlikely to significantly improve Canopy's overall financial situation, failing to change the long-term loss trajectory.
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- Analyst Rating Upgrade: Following Tilray's latest quarterly earnings release, Roth Capital's William Kirk upgraded the stock from 'neutral' to 'buy' while maintaining a $10 price target, reflecting optimism about the stock's future.
- International Market Growth: Tilray's international cannabis sales grew 73% year-over-year, demonstrating the company's successful penetration into markets outside North America, which may support future revenue growth.
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See More
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- Legal Risks and Opportunities: While marijuana remains illegal at the federal level in the U.S., any changes in the next eight years could benefit Tilray; however, this may also lead to fierce competition from large beverage companies.
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See More
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- Ongoing Losses: Canopy Growth has faced years of net losses, with its latest quarterly report showing revenue of C$54.5 million and a net loss of nearly C$45.8 million, indicating persistent struggles with profitability that have severely impacted investor sentiment.
- Dilutive Share Issuance: The company has repeatedly attempted to shore up its finances through dilutive secondary share issues, which have diluted existing shareholders' stakes and driven away potential investors, negatively affecting stock performance.
- Acquisition of MTL Cannabis: Canopy Growth completed its acquisition of MTL Cannabis in March for C$125 million, and while MTL has posted some profits in the past four quarters, the deal is unlikely to significantly improve Canopy's financial situation, failing to fundamentally alter its financial struggles.
- Market Environment Challenges: Regulatory bottlenecks in Canada and competition from gray and black markets continue to hinder market development, and despite the U.S. market's potential, legal uncertainties and fierce domestic competition pose significant challenges for Canopy Growth in achieving growth.
See More
Canopy Growth Stock Continues to Decline Amid Challenges
- Stock Decline: Canopy Growth's stock has dropped over 12% since the beginning of May, contrasting with the nearly 2% gain of the S&P 500, indicating a pessimistic investor sentiment that could lead to further capital outflows.
- Financial Struggles: The company's latest quarterly revenue was C$54.5 million, with a net loss nearing C$45.8 million; although the loss has narrowed, ongoing financial pressures raise doubts about future profitability, potentially leading to more dilutive share issues.
- MTL Cannabis Acquisition: Canopy Growth completed its acquisition of MTL Cannabis in March for C$125 million (US$91 million), and while MTL has reported profits in the past four quarters, its revenue is unlikely to significantly improve Canopy's overall financial situation, failing to change the long-term loss trajectory.
- Market Challenges: Regulatory bottlenecks in Canada and competition from the black market continue to hinder Canopy Growth's growth potential, while slow legal reforms in the U.S. present significant challenges in both markets, suggesting the need for further dilutive financing to sustain operations.
See More
Tilray Brands Five-Year Merger Review
- Post-Merger Market Performance: Tilray merged with Aphria in 2021 to create a global cannabis leader, yet five years later, its stock has plummeted over 96%, indicating that the merger has not achieved the expected market growth.
- Revenue Volatility and Profitability Challenges: Although Tilray's revenue has increased in recent years, the persistent lack of profitability and market challenges have left investors concerned about its future profit trajectory, especially with the U.S. market remaining inaccessible.
- Expansion into Beverage Sector: Tilray has diversified by acquiring brewing companies, with beverages now accounting for about a quarter of its total revenue; however, this strategy has not effectively improved overall profitability and has instead increased financial pressure on the company.
- Investment Risks and Market Outlook: Tilray's stock has dropped 38% this year, lacking clear growth catalysts, and while its valuation has significantly declined, investors should remain cautious due to the high-risk nature of this stock, making it unsuitable for long-term investment.
See More
Tilray Brands Stock Fluctuations and Analyst Ratings
- Price Volatility: Tilray Brands' stock surged recently due to U.S. legalization catalysts but subsequently fell below $6 from nearly $8 as investors reassessed the details, indicating market caution regarding short-term prospects.
- Analyst Rating Upgrade: Following Tilray's latest quarterly earnings release, Roth Capital's William Kirk upgraded the stock from 'neutral' to 'buy' while maintaining a $10 price target, reflecting optimism about the stock's future.
- International Market Growth: Tilray's international cannabis sales grew 73% year-over-year, demonstrating the company's successful penetration into markets outside North America, which may support future revenue growth.
- Domestic Market Pressure: The ability of Canadian companies to export products has alleviated price pressure in the domestic market; however, Tilray's beverage unit is experiencing declining revenue and gross profits, and the company continues to report a net loss, highlighting ongoing challenges.
See More
Tilray Brands Faces Challenges and Opportunities
- Market Outlook Positive: The cannabis market is projected to continue expanding, particularly in North America, with the cannabis beverage market valued at approximately $7.4 billion in 2023 and expected to grow to $242.68 billion by 2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of 54.62%, presenting potential growth opportunities for Tilray.
- Diversified Revenue Structure: Tilray holds a leading market share in Canada, with its beverage segment accounting for 20% to 30% of quarterly revenue, and has established a strong brand network in the U.S. market through acquisitions, enhancing its competitive position in the cannabis beverage sector.
- Challenges Ahead: Despite Tilray's leading position in the beverage category, the uncertainty surrounding federal legalization of cannabis in the U.S. remains, and the company's poor financial performance in recent years, characterized by inconsistent revenue growth and ongoing losses, has undermined investor confidence.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: Should cannabis become legal at the federal level in the U.S., Tilray will face competition from cash-rich beverage giants with extensive experience in highly regulated consumer goods, which could threaten Tilray's market share and profitability.
See More
Tilray Brands Faces Opportunities and Challenges in Beverage Market
- Market Potential: The cannabis beverage market is projected to be worth approximately $7.4 billion in 2023 and could grow to $242.68 billion by 2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of 54.62%, presenting significant opportunities for Tilray.
- Revenue Structure: Tilray's beverage segment accounts for 20% to 30% of its quarterly revenue in Canada, and it has established itself as the fourth-largest craft brewer in the U.S. through acquisitions, indicating strong competitive positioning in the beverage market.
- Legal Risks and Opportunities: While marijuana remains illegal at the federal level in the U.S., any changes in the next eight years could benefit Tilray; however, this may also lead to fierce competition from large beverage companies.
- Poor Financial Performance: Tilray has faced significant financial challenges with consistent net losses and inconsistent revenue growth in recent years, and although its forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.7 suggests it may be undervalued, market confidence remains low.
See More
