Bernstein Lowers Ambev Rating to Market Perform, Sets Price Target at $2.88
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 26 2025
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Should l Buy ABEV?
Source: Benzinga
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Analyst Views on ABEV
Wall Street analysts forecast ABEV stock price to fall
5 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 2.820
Low
1.95
Averages
2.77
High
4.00
Current: 2.820
Low
1.95
Averages
2.77
High
4.00
About ABEV
Ambev SA, formerly Inbev Participacoes Societarias SA, is a Brazil-based company engaged in the brewing sector. The Company produces, distributes and sells beer, carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) and other non-alcoholic and non-carbonated (NANC) beverages across the Americas. The Company's activities are divided into three segments: Latin America North, including sell of beer, CSD and NANC drinks in Brazil, as well as operations in the Dominican Republic, Saint Vincent, Antigua, Dominica, Cuba, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Barbados and Panama; Latin America South, distributing products in Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile; and Canada, represented by Labatt’s operations, which comprises sales in Canada and some exports to the U.S. market. The Company markets products under various brand names, such as Adriatica, Brahma, Leffe, Budweiser, Corona, PepsiCo and Lipton. It is a subsidiary of Interbrew International BV.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Ambev Reports Q4 2025 Earnings with Mixed Results
- Earnings Highlights: Ambev's Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS stood at R$0.28, aligning with expectations, while revenue reached R$24.81 billion, down 8.2% year-over-year but beating estimates by R$210 million, showcasing resilience amid challenges.
- Volume Decline: Consolidated volumes fell by 3.6% in Q4 2025, reflecting weak market demand that may pose challenges for future sales growth and overall market positioning.
- EBITDA Growth: Despite the volume drop, normalized EBITDA grew by 1.3% in Q4 2025, indicating effective cost control and operational efficiency, which bolstered profitability during a tough quarter.
- Future Outlook: Looking ahead to 2026, Ambev remains optimistic about the beer category, anticipating a 4.5% to 7.5% increase in cash COGS per hectoliter, while planning to enhance consumer engagement during the upcoming FIFA World Cup to capitalize on market opportunities.
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Ambev Q4 Earnings Announcement Scheduled
- Earnings Release Date: Ambev (ABEV) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 12 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.05, reflecting an 83.9% year-over-year decline, indicating significant profitability pressure on the company.
- Revenue Forecast Decline: The consensus revenue estimate stands at $4.69 billion, down 82.7% year-over-year, highlighting the sales challenges Ambev faces in the current market environment, which may impact its short-term financial performance.
- Historical Performance Record: Over the past two years, Ambev has beaten both EPS and revenue estimates 100% of the time, demonstrating reliability in financial forecasting, although recent estimates have seen downward adjustments.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and one downward revision, while revenue estimates experienced one upward revision and three downward revisions, indicating a weakening analyst confidence in the company's future performance.
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- Strong Performance from Ambev: Ambev (ABEV) has received an A EPS revision grade and a quant rating of 4.86, reflecting analysts' optimistic outlook on its future profitability, likely attracting more investor interest.
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- ETF Performance: The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) underperformed in Q4 with a marginal loss of 0.73%, contrasting with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gain of 2%, indicating a defensive lag in risk-on market conditions.
- Quant Rating Analysis: According to Seeking Alpha's quant model, XLP received a rating of 2.28, ranking as the second-lowest among 11 sector-based ETFs, only above the real estate ETF (XLRE), reflecting a lack of market confidence in consumer staples.
- Stock Rating Highlights: Ambev (ABEV) achieved a Strong Buy rating of 4.86, while United Natural Foods (UNFI) received a rating of 4.73, indicating these companies' relative strength in the current economic environment, potentially attracting investor interest.
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Investment Opportunities: Despite the turmoil, foreign stocks are perceived as undervalued and present potential buying opportunities for investors.
See More
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Global Market Impact: The ongoing war with Iran is causing significant disruptions in international markets, leading to increased uncertainty for investors.
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Ambev Reports Q4 2025 Earnings with Mixed Results
- Earnings Highlights: Ambev's Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS stood at R$0.28, aligning with expectations, while revenue reached R$24.81 billion, down 8.2% year-over-year but beating estimates by R$210 million, showcasing resilience amid challenges.
- Volume Decline: Consolidated volumes fell by 3.6% in Q4 2025, reflecting weak market demand that may pose challenges for future sales growth and overall market positioning.
- EBITDA Growth: Despite the volume drop, normalized EBITDA grew by 1.3% in Q4 2025, indicating effective cost control and operational efficiency, which bolstered profitability during a tough quarter.
- Future Outlook: Looking ahead to 2026, Ambev remains optimistic about the beer category, anticipating a 4.5% to 7.5% increase in cash COGS per hectoliter, while planning to enhance consumer engagement during the upcoming FIFA World Cup to capitalize on market opportunities.
See More
Ambev Q4 Earnings Announcement Scheduled
- Earnings Release Date: Ambev (ABEV) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 12 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.05, reflecting an 83.9% year-over-year decline, indicating significant profitability pressure on the company.
- Revenue Forecast Decline: The consensus revenue estimate stands at $4.69 billion, down 82.7% year-over-year, highlighting the sales challenges Ambev faces in the current market environment, which may impact its short-term financial performance.
- Historical Performance Record: Over the past two years, Ambev has beaten both EPS and revenue estimates 100% of the time, demonstrating reliability in financial forecasting, although recent estimates have seen downward adjustments.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and one downward revision, while revenue estimates experienced one upward revision and three downward revisions, indicating a weakening analyst confidence in the company's future performance.
See More
Analysts Upgrade Outlook: JRONY and ABEV Stand Out
- Analyst Sentiment Boost: As earnings season approaches, analysts have upgraded Jerónimo Martins (JRONY) to an A+ EPS revision grade with a quant rating of 4.26, indicating strong confidence in its near-term performance, which could drive stock price appreciation.
- Strong Performance from Ambev: Ambev (ABEV) has received an A EPS revision grade and a quant rating of 4.86, reflecting analysts' optimistic outlook on its future profitability, likely attracting more investor interest.
- Consumer Sector Outlook: This analysis focuses on the consumer staples sector (XLP), ranking companies by positive EPS revisions, revealing increased market confidence in several firms, which may lead to improved overall sector performance.
- Market Sentiment Shift: With analysts raising EPS expectations for multiple companies, investors should monitor these stocks closely to capitalize on potential investment opportunities, especially amid increasing economic uncertainty.
See More
Consumer Staples ETF XLP Underperforms in Q4 with a Rating of 2.28
- ETF Performance: The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) underperformed in Q4 with a marginal loss of 0.73%, contrasting with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gain of 2%, indicating a defensive lag in risk-on market conditions.
- Quant Rating Analysis: According to Seeking Alpha's quant model, XLP received a rating of 2.28, ranking as the second-lowest among 11 sector-based ETFs, only above the real estate ETF (XLRE), reflecting a lack of market confidence in consumer staples.
- Stock Rating Highlights: Ambev (ABEV) achieved a Strong Buy rating of 4.86, while United Natural Foods (UNFI) received a rating of 4.73, indicating these companies' relative strength in the current economic environment, potentially attracting investor interest.
- Future Market Outlook: Goldman Sachs Research noted that despite structural headwinds in the consumer staples sector, attractive and profitable categories such as nicotine, energy drinks, and beauty products are still worth investing in for 2026, suggesting optimism in specific sub-sectors.
See More
