Analysts Predict 10% Gains Ahead For The Holdings of QUS
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jul 23 2025
0mins
Should l Buy PM?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
ETF Analysis: The SPDR MSCI USA StrategicFactors ETF (QUS) has an implied analyst target price of $180.73, indicating a potential upside of 10.09% from its current trading price of $164.17.
Individual Holdings Performance: Notable underlying holdings such as Philip Morris International, General Motors, and Fifth Third Bancorp show significant upside potential based on analyst target prices, raising questions about the validity of these targets amidst market conditions.
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Analyst Views on PM
Wall Street analysts forecast PM stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 157.190
Low
175.00
Averages
191.95
High
210.00
Current: 157.190
Low
175.00
Averages
191.95
High
210.00
About PM
Philip Morris International Inc. is an international tobacco company. The Company’s product portfolio primarily consists of cigarettes and smoke-free products. Its smoke-free business (SFB) also includes wellness and healthcare products, as well as consumer accessories, such as lighters and matches. The Company’s segments include Europe Region; South and Southeast Asia, Commonwealth of Independent States, Middle East and Africa Region (SSEA, CIS & MEA); East Asia, Australia & PMI Global Travel Retail (EA, AU & PMI GTR), and Americas Region. The Company's brands include Marlboro, HEETS, IQOS, IQOS ILUMA, TEREA, VEEV and ZYN. Its IQOS smoke-free product brand portfolio includes heated tobacco and nicotine-containing vapor products. Its international cigarette brands are Chesterfield, L&M, and Philip Morris. It also owns a number of local cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe and Sampoerna A in Indonesia, and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Rising Call for Cessation: Nearly three-quarters of Americans believe public health officials should intensify efforts to discourage smoking, particularly addressing misconceptions about non-combustible products, indicating a growing public concern over smoking hazards.
- Increased Industry Pressure: The white paper from Philip Morris International (PM) proposing various cessation strategies has led to a 2% decline in shares of PM, Altria Group (MO), and British American Tobacco (BTI) on Tuesday, reflecting market apprehension regarding the tobacco sector's future.
- Growth in Tobacco Alternatives: While cigarette sales fell by 1.1%, heated tobacco units (HTU) surged by 10.2%, demonstrating PM's successful pivot towards smoke-free products, with nearly $17 billion in revenue from these alternatives in 2025, accounting for 41.5% of total sales.
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- GDP Revision Impact: The U.S. fourth-quarter GDP was revised down to 0.7% in March, increasing the risk of economic slowdown, and investors should be aware of the potential for two consecutive quarters of negative growth, which could be viewed as a shallow recession.
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- Rising Call for Cessation: Nearly three-quarters of Americans believe public health officials should intensify efforts to discourage smoking, particularly addressing misconceptions about non-combustible products, indicating a growing public concern over smoking hazards.
- Increased Industry Pressure: The white paper from Philip Morris International (PM) proposing various cessation strategies has led to a 2% decline in shares of PM, Altria Group (MO), and British American Tobacco (BTI) on Tuesday, reflecting market apprehension regarding the tobacco sector's future.
- Growth in Tobacco Alternatives: While cigarette sales fell by 1.1%, heated tobacco units (HTU) surged by 10.2%, demonstrating PM's successful pivot towards smoke-free products, with nearly $17 billion in revenue from these alternatives in 2025, accounting for 41.5% of total sales.
- Importance of Policy Advocacy: PM stresses that addressing smoking requires timely FDA assessments and authorizations of better alternatives, alongside public education efforts, showcasing the company's proactive stance in promoting public health policies.
See More
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- Price Fluctuation Analysis: IWB's 52-week low is $279.035 and high is $382.34, with the latest trade at $369.41, indicating price volatility near the high point, which may influence investor buying decisions.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing the latest stock price to the 200-day moving average provides valuable insights for investors, aiding in market trend assessment and potential buying opportunities.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting liquidity and market performance.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding for ETFs helps identify those experiencing significant inflows (new units created) or outflows (old units destroyed), assessing their impact on underlying assets and market sentiment.
See More
Altria Group's High-Yield Dividend and Cannabis Investment
- High-Yield Dividend: Altria Group offers a dividend yield exceeding 6%, providing investors with a steady cash flow, although its reliance on traditional cigarette sales remains high at 87%, indicating challenges in its transformation process.
- Cannabis Investment Status: Altria invested approximately $1.8 billion in Canadian cannabis company Cronos, holding about 41% of its shares, yet this investment is currently valued at only $429 million, reflecting market caution towards the cannabis industry.
- Revenue Trends: While Altria's annual revenue consistently exceeds $20 billion, its net revenue after excise taxes has declined annually since 2021, dropping from $21.1 billion to $20.1 billion, highlighting the long-term decline in the traditional cigarette market.
- Future Strategy: Altria launched its
See More
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- Strong Profitability: Altria Group generates over $20 billion in annual revenue, maintaining a high net margin of 75.86% despite the long-term decline in cigarette consumption, showcasing robust financial resilience in a competitive market.
- Dividend King Status: With a 56-year streak of increasing dividends and a current yield of 6.39%, Altria remains a favorite among investors, particularly those seeking high-yield opportunities, further solidifying its market position.
- Strategic Transformation: The company has launched its 'Moving Beyond Smoking' strategy, aiming to double revenue from next-generation tobacco products to $5 billion by 2028; despite regulatory challenges and competitive pressures, this transformation indicates a forward-looking approach to future markets.
- Investment in Cannabis Market: Altria invested approximately $1.8 billion in Canadian cannabis company Cronos in 2019, holding a 41% stake; although its current value is only $429 million, the potential for significant returns increases as marijuana legalization progresses.
See More
U.S. Consumer Spending Shows Unexpected Growth Amid Iran War
- Retail Sales Growth: U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in February compared to the previous month, surpassing the expected 0.4% growth, indicating broad consumer spending increases in discretionary categories like department stores, restaurants, and cars, despite ongoing recession concerns.
- Impact of Energy Prices: The Iran war has led to a one-third increase in oil prices, raising fuel and shipping costs, prompting investors to seek safe investment avenues, with consumer staples stocks favored for their defensive and recession-resistant characteristics.
- Dollar General Performance: Dollar General has a strong track record during economic downturns, with management noting a shift in consumer behavior due to high energy prices and inflation, anticipating comparable sales and profit growth in 2025 as it continues to expand and renovate stores.
- Philip Morris Growth: Philip Morris International has pivoted successfully to next-gen products like Zyn and Iqos, achieving a 6.5% organic revenue growth to $40.6 billion, with a solid 3.7% dividend yield, positioning it well to weather market volatility amid the Iran conflict.
See More
Investors Heighten Concerns Over Economic Recession
- Recession Probability Fluctuations: According to Kalshi, the probability of a recession in 2025 exceeded 40% but dropped below 20% in February this year, only to rebound to 28% as of April 1, reflecting the impact of poor economic data and international tensions on market sentiment.
- GDP Revision Impact: The U.S. fourth-quarter GDP was revised down to 0.7% in March, increasing the risk of economic slowdown, and investors should be aware of the potential for two consecutive quarters of negative growth, which could be viewed as a shallow recession.
- Consumer Staples ETF Performance: The State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) has performed well amid market turmoil, rising 5% this year, with major holdings including Walmart (11.85%) and Coca-Cola (6.46%), demonstrating the resilience of consumer staples in uncertain economic conditions.
- Utilities ETF Stability: The Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU) has also shown strong performance, up approximately 5% this year, with key holdings like NextEra Energy (11.95%) and Southern (6.38%), indicating that utility stocks' defensive characteristics are attracting investors amid recession fears.
See More
