Analyst Lowers Roblox Growth Forecast
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 12 2026
0mins
Should l Buy RBLX?
Source: Fool
- Growth Forecast Downgrade: Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski predicts that Roblox's Q2 bookings growth will decline to between 23% and 25%, below the analyst consensus of 30%, indicating challenges in achieving growth metrics.
- Price Target Adjustment: Gawrelski has lowered Roblox's stock price target from $97 to $78, marking the second reduction this year, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's future performance.
- Long-Term Optimism: Despite short-term challenges, Gawrelski remains optimistic about Roblox's long-term prospects, believing that the expansion of its advertising business will help boost margins, although the current business model lacks attractiveness.
- High Cost Structure: Roblox's structurally high expenses hinder profitability; despite a 43% revenue increase to $1.4 billion last quarter, the high costs associated with content creators and platform maintenance continue to suppress the company's profitability.
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Analyst Views on RBLX
Wall Street analysts forecast RBLX stock price to rise
22 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
8 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 61.830
Low
70.00
Averages
133.89
High
180.00
Current: 61.830
Low
70.00
Averages
133.89
High
180.00
About RBLX
Roblox Corporation operates a platform for connection and communication (Roblox Platform), where every day, people come to create, play, work, learn, and connect with each other in experiences built by its global community of creators. The Company’s platform consists of the Roblox Client, the Roblox Studio, and the Roblox Cloud. Roblox Client is an application that allows users to seamlessly explore 3D immersive experiences. Roblox Studio is the free toolset that allows developers and creators to build, publish, and operate three-dimensional (3D) immersive experiences and other content accessed with the Roblox Client. Roblox Cloud includes the services and infrastructure that power its Platform. The Company operates the Roblox Platform as a live service that allows users to play and socialize with others for free. The Company offers developers and creators the ability to build engaging, immersive experiences and marketplace items that they can easily share with the Roblox community.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Australia Enhances Child Protection in Online Gaming
- Regulatory Intervention: Australia's eSafety Commissioner has issued legally enforceable transparency notices to Roblox, Minecraft, Fortnite, and Steam, demanding details on how they protect children from sexual predators, radicalization, and cyberbullying, highlighting the government's commitment to child online safety.
- Widespread Gaming Among Youth: eSafety research indicates that 90% of children aged 8 to 17 engage in online gaming, underscoring the popularity of these platforms among youth and necessitating regulatory measures to ensure their safety.
- Litigation Pressure: Roblox is facing over 140 lawsuits alleging failure to protect children from sexual predators and violent content, recently settling with Alabama and West Virginia for $23.2 million, committing to improve chat and gaming functions for child safety.
- Warning on Extremist Content: Reports of extremist content in online games, including recreations of terrorism and extremist themes in Roblox and Minecraft, have prompted regulators to demand stricter content review and safety measures from these platforms.
See More
Australia's Regulator Demands Gaming Platforms Protect Children
- Regulatory Demands: Australia's eSafety regulator has issued legally enforceable transparency notices to online gaming platforms, including Roblox and Microsoft's Minecraft, requiring them to outline measures for protecting children from grooming and radicalization, highlighting the urgent need for child safety in digital spaces.
- Legal Consequences: Companies that fail to comply with these notices may face penalties and civil action, indicating the regulator's stringent expectations for child protection in online gaming environments, which could significantly impact the operational frameworks of these platforms.
- Social Space Risks: The regulator noted that 90% of Australians aged 8 to 17 engage in online gaming, with predatory adults exploiting this by targeting children through gaming environments, thereby increasing the risks of sexual exploitation and radicalization, underscoring the urgent responsibility placed on gaming companies.
- Roblox Legal Challenges: Recently, Roblox reached settlements with Alabama and West Virginia, agreeing to pay over $23 million to resolve claims of failing to protect young users, while facing more than 140 lawsuits, reflecting significant legal and compliance pressures on the company.
See More
Wells Fargo Lowers Roblox's Performance Outlook
- Guidance Downgrade: Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski forecasts Roblox's Q2 bookings growth at 23% to 25%, falling short of the 30% analyst consensus, indicating significant challenges in meeting growth metrics that could undermine investor confidence.
- Cost Structure Issues: Roblox's high cost structure and excessive stock-based compensation pose long-term profitability challenges, as evidenced by a 43% revenue increase to $1.4 billion and a 63% surge in bookings to $2.2 billion last quarter, yet high expenses limit its profit potential.
- Price Target Reduction: Gawrelski has lowered Roblox's price target from $97 to $78, marking the second reduction this year, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's future performance and potentially prompting a market reassessment of the stock.
- Advertising Business Opportunity: Despite short-term challenges, Gawrelski remains optimistic about Roblox's long-term prospects, believing that expanding its advertising business could enhance margins, indicating the company's potential in diversifying its revenue streams.
See More
Analyst Lowers Roblox Growth Forecast
- Growth Forecast Downgrade: Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski predicts that Roblox's Q2 bookings growth will decline to between 23% and 25%, below the analyst consensus of 30%, indicating challenges in achieving growth metrics.
- Price Target Adjustment: Gawrelski has lowered Roblox's stock price target from $97 to $78, marking the second reduction this year, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's future performance.
- Long-Term Optimism: Despite short-term challenges, Gawrelski remains optimistic about Roblox's long-term prospects, believing that the expansion of its advertising business will help boost margins, although the current business model lacks attractiveness.
- High Cost Structure: Roblox's structurally high expenses hinder profitability; despite a 43% revenue increase to $1.4 billion last quarter, the high costs associated with content creators and platform maintenance continue to suppress the company's profitability.
See More
Roblox Launches New Subscription Service Roblox Plus
- Enhanced User Value: Roblox Plus subscription plan will launch globally on April 30, 2026, at $4.99 per month, offering discounts on in-game purchases and avatar items, aimed at enhancing user experience and increasing engagement, thereby driving long-term growth for the platform.
- Creator Revenue Assurance: Roblox will cover the discounts for users, ensuring creators earn the same amount per sale while allowing for increased revenue opportunities as users make more purchases, promoting a healthy ecosystem on the platform.
- Introduction of New Features: Subscribers will receive a 10% discount on in-game purchases, increasing to 20% after the third month, and can choose game partners through unlimited private servers, enhancing social interaction and user satisfaction.
- Creator Support Mechanism: Roblox Plus also provides new revenue opportunities for creators, including an API that allows users to subscribe within games, generating additional Robux income for creators, further incentivizing them to grow their businesses on the platform.
See More
ROBLOX CORP: DISCONTINUING NEW SIGN-UPS FOR ROBLOX PREMIUM
Roblox Premium Changes: Roblox Corporation has announced that it will no longer offer new sign-ups for its Premium subscription service.
Impact on Users: Existing Premium members will continue to have access to their benefits, but new users will not be able to subscribe to the service.
See More
Australia Enhances Child Protection in Online Gaming
- Regulatory Intervention: Australia's eSafety Commissioner has issued legally enforceable transparency notices to Roblox, Minecraft, Fortnite, and Steam, demanding details on how they protect children from sexual predators, radicalization, and cyberbullying, highlighting the government's commitment to child online safety.
- Widespread Gaming Among Youth: eSafety research indicates that 90% of children aged 8 to 17 engage in online gaming, underscoring the popularity of these platforms among youth and necessitating regulatory measures to ensure their safety.
- Litigation Pressure: Roblox is facing over 140 lawsuits alleging failure to protect children from sexual predators and violent content, recently settling with Alabama and West Virginia for $23.2 million, committing to improve chat and gaming functions for child safety.
- Warning on Extremist Content: Reports of extremist content in online games, including recreations of terrorism and extremist themes in Roblox and Minecraft, have prompted regulators to demand stricter content review and safety measures from these platforms.
See More
Australia's Regulator Demands Gaming Platforms Protect Children
- Regulatory Demands: Australia's eSafety regulator has issued legally enforceable transparency notices to online gaming platforms, including Roblox and Microsoft's Minecraft, requiring them to outline measures for protecting children from grooming and radicalization, highlighting the urgent need for child safety in digital spaces.
- Legal Consequences: Companies that fail to comply with these notices may face penalties and civil action, indicating the regulator's stringent expectations for child protection in online gaming environments, which could significantly impact the operational frameworks of these platforms.
- Social Space Risks: The regulator noted that 90% of Australians aged 8 to 17 engage in online gaming, with predatory adults exploiting this by targeting children through gaming environments, thereby increasing the risks of sexual exploitation and radicalization, underscoring the urgent responsibility placed on gaming companies.
- Roblox Legal Challenges: Recently, Roblox reached settlements with Alabama and West Virginia, agreeing to pay over $23 million to resolve claims of failing to protect young users, while facing more than 140 lawsuits, reflecting significant legal and compliance pressures on the company.
See More
Wells Fargo Lowers Roblox's Performance Outlook
- Guidance Downgrade: Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski forecasts Roblox's Q2 bookings growth at 23% to 25%, falling short of the 30% analyst consensus, indicating significant challenges in meeting growth metrics that could undermine investor confidence.
- Cost Structure Issues: Roblox's high cost structure and excessive stock-based compensation pose long-term profitability challenges, as evidenced by a 43% revenue increase to $1.4 billion and a 63% surge in bookings to $2.2 billion last quarter, yet high expenses limit its profit potential.
- Price Target Reduction: Gawrelski has lowered Roblox's price target from $97 to $78, marking the second reduction this year, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's future performance and potentially prompting a market reassessment of the stock.
- Advertising Business Opportunity: Despite short-term challenges, Gawrelski remains optimistic about Roblox's long-term prospects, believing that expanding its advertising business could enhance margins, indicating the company's potential in diversifying its revenue streams.
See More
Analyst Lowers Roblox Growth Forecast
- Growth Forecast Downgrade: Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski predicts that Roblox's Q2 bookings growth will decline to between 23% and 25%, below the analyst consensus of 30%, indicating challenges in achieving growth metrics.
- Price Target Adjustment: Gawrelski has lowered Roblox's stock price target from $97 to $78, marking the second reduction this year, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's future performance.
- Long-Term Optimism: Despite short-term challenges, Gawrelski remains optimistic about Roblox's long-term prospects, believing that the expansion of its advertising business will help boost margins, although the current business model lacks attractiveness.
- High Cost Structure: Roblox's structurally high expenses hinder profitability; despite a 43% revenue increase to $1.4 billion last quarter, the high costs associated with content creators and platform maintenance continue to suppress the company's profitability.
See More
Roblox Launches New Subscription Service Roblox Plus
- Enhanced User Value: Roblox Plus subscription plan will launch globally on April 30, 2026, at $4.99 per month, offering discounts on in-game purchases and avatar items, aimed at enhancing user experience and increasing engagement, thereby driving long-term growth for the platform.
- Creator Revenue Assurance: Roblox will cover the discounts for users, ensuring creators earn the same amount per sale while allowing for increased revenue opportunities as users make more purchases, promoting a healthy ecosystem on the platform.
- Introduction of New Features: Subscribers will receive a 10% discount on in-game purchases, increasing to 20% after the third month, and can choose game partners through unlimited private servers, enhancing social interaction and user satisfaction.
- Creator Support Mechanism: Roblox Plus also provides new revenue opportunities for creators, including an API that allows users to subscribe within games, generating additional Robux income for creators, further incentivizing them to grow their businesses on the platform.
See More
ROBLOX CORP: DISCONTINUING NEW SIGN-UPS FOR ROBLOX PREMIUM
Roblox Premium Changes: Roblox Corporation has announced that it will no longer offer new sign-ups for its Premium subscription service.
Impact on Users: Existing Premium members will continue to have access to their benefits, but new users will not be able to subscribe to the service.
See More
