Middle East talks stalled; Fed officials speak; US Q1 earnings season begins.

Focus on the Iranian Situation and Economic Developments

The situation in Iran remains a key focus. According to CCTV News, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris stated that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan, failed to reach an agreement, with significant differences still evident. The U.S. delegation will return home.

Federal Reserve and Economic Data

Federal Reserve officials are set to make several statements, while the European Central Bank (ECB) will release meeting minutes. Key events include:

• Tuesday: Federal Reserve hosts a forum on "Strengthening the U.S. Economy through Rural Investment."
• Wednesday: Various Federal Reserve officials, including Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, will participate in discussions.
• Thursday: The Fed will release its Beige Book on economic conditions.

Investors are anticipating more critical statements from the Fed, as the market shifts towards a more hawkish view. However, Bank of America maintains its prediction of two rate cuts in 2026, suggesting that the Fed will overlook supply-driven inflation and weak wage pressures.

European Central Bank Insights

The ECB's meeting minutes from March 19 will be closely watched, especially after a surprising rise in the March CPI from 1.9% to 2.5%. This shift in sentiment among traders indicates a growing concern over inflation control.

Upcoming Economic Data from China

Next week, China will release a series of economic data, including Q1 GDP, March import/export figures, and industrial output. Huachuang Securities predicts a GDP growth rate of around 5.0%.

Oil Market Reports

On April 13, OPEC will publish its monthly oil market report, followed by the IEA's report on April 14. These reports are crucial given the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Iran.

Semiconductor Price Increases

A global price increase in the semiconductor industry is underway, affecting companies from Infineon to domestic firms like Puran. Puran has announced a price hike for general MCU products starting April 15.

Upcoming Earnings Reports

Several major companies are set to release earnings reports, including:

• Goldman Sachs (GS) before U.S. market opens.
• ASML (ASML), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Bank of America (BAC) also reporting soon.

Key Takeaways

• Iran Situation: Ongoing negotiations remain unresolved.
• Federal Reserve: Anticipated statements and economic reports may influence market sentiment.
• China's Economic Data: Important indicators to be released next week.
• Semiconductor Price Trends: Price hikes are spreading across the industry.