TSCO Should I Buy
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Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. The stock faces near-term challenges such as declining financial metrics, muted analyst sentiment, and insider selling activity, despite some positive catalysts like dividend growth and hedge fund buying. A hold strategy is recommended until the company's performance stabilizes or shows clear signs of improvement.
The MACD is positive but contracting, RSI is neutral at 54.173, and moving averages are converging, indicating no strong directional trend. The stock is trading near the pivot level of 53.352 with resistance at 55.747 and support at 50.957.
Tractor Supply expects $10 million annual savings through logistics optimization.
Dividend increased for the 17th consecutive year, now at $0.96 per share, reflecting a 4.3% growth.
Hedge funds are significantly increasing their holdings, with a 15983.33% rise in buying activity over the last quarter.
Insiders are selling heavily, with a 1223.71% increase in selling activity over the last month.
Analysts have broadly lowered price targets and expressed concerns about weak Q4 results, margin pressures, and a challenging consumer environment.
Near-term trends are expected to fade, with limited positive catalysts and a pressured rural economy.
In Q4 2025, revenue grew by 3.31% YoY to $3.898 billion, but net income dropped by 3.81% YoY to $227.4 million. EPS declined by 2.27% YoY to $0.43, and gross margin fell slightly to 31.86%, down 0.59% YoY. These metrics indicate mixed performance with declining profitability.
Analysts have lowered price targets across the board, with the highest target now at $61 and the lowest at $53. Ratings range from Buy to Hold, with concerns about weak Q4 results, margin pressures, and a challenging consumer environment. Analysts see limited near-term upside but acknowledge potential for long-term recovery.
