CHDN Should I Buy
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Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. The technical indicators are bearish, the financial performance shows declining profitability, and there are no significant positive catalysts or recent insider/congressional trading to suggest a strong upside. While analysts have positive price targets, the broader sentiment in the gaming sector remains cautious.
The technical indicators for CHDN are bearish. The MACD is negatively expanding, RSI is neutral but leaning towards oversold territory, and moving averages suggest a downward trend (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading below key support levels, with S1 at 91.585 and S2 at 89.666. The price trend suggests a 60% chance of minor declines in the short term.
Analysts have raised price targets recently, with JPMorgan, BofA, and Wells Fargo maintaining Buy or Overweight ratings. The upcoming Q4 earnings report on February 25, 2026, could act as a catalyst if results exceed expectations.
Hedge funds are aggressively selling, with a 115.46% increase in selling activity last quarter. The financial performance in Q3 2025 showed a significant drop in net income (-41.15% YoY) and EPS (-38.37% YoY), indicating profitability challenges. No recent news or congressional trading data to provide additional support.
In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 8.67% YoY to $683M, but net income dropped by 41.15% YoY to $37.9M, and EPS fell by 38.37% YoY to 0.53. Gross margin improved slightly to 30.63%, up 1.26% YoY, but overall profitability remains under pressure.
Analysts are cautiously optimistic, with JPMorgan, BofA, and Wells Fargo raising price targets to $125-$145 and maintaining Buy or Overweight ratings. However, the broader gaming sector faces challenges, including stretched consumer spending and negative sentiment.
