Should You Buy Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
19.300
1 Day change
-1.48%
52 Week Range
26.890
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
VRRM is not a good buy right now. Despite being extremely oversold (RSI_6 ~5) and showing very bullish options positioning (very low put/call ratios), the primary trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 and MACD histogram negative and widening). The stock also closed below the first key support (S1 ~19.59) at ~19.31, which keeps downside risk open toward ~18.78 before a sustainable reversal is confirmed. I would avoid initiating a new position today and only reconsider after price reclaims ~19.60–20.90 with momentum improving.
Technical Analysis
Trend is decisively bearish: moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), and MACD histogram is -0.362 and negatively expanding (downtrend strengthening). However, RSI_6 at ~5.33 signals an extreme oversold condition, which often precedes a short-term relief bounce—but that is not the same as a confirmed trend reversal. Key levels: the stock closed at ~19.31, below S1 (~19.59), so that prior support is now overhead resistance; next support is S2 (~18.776). A bullish stabilization would more credibly start if VRRM reclaims ~19.59 and then the pivot area (~20.91).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment is strongly call-skewed: open interest put/call is 0.04 (very low) and volume put/call is 0.02, indicating traders are overwhelmingly positioned to the upside (or not seeking much put protection). Options activity is elevated versus its recent baseline (today’s volume ~286 vs ~25x average), though absolute volume is still not large. Implied volatility (30d IV ~30.27) is above historical volatility (~19.3), suggesting options are priced relatively rich, but IV rank (~12) / percentile (~24.8) indicate IV is not extreme versus its own history.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
Business development: partnership with Locauto to launch electronic toll payment solutions across 100+ rental locations in Italy (supports international expansion/adjacent growth).
Demand tailwinds: surveys showing strong parent support for automated enforcement/safety cameras in school zones (supports broader adoption narrative for automated enforcement solutions).
Fundamentals: latest reported quarter shows solid YoY growth in revenue, net income, and EPS.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Price action/technical pressure: strong downtrend with weakening momentum (MACD negative and expanding) and price breaking below a key support level (~19.59).
Risk items highlighted by the Street: customer concentration and regulatory changes (potential headline/contract risk).
Margin trend: gross margin declined YoY in the latest quarter (80.4%, -3.46% YoY), which may concern investors if it persists.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to ~$261.94M (+16.13% YoY), net income rose to ~$46.84M (+34.86% YoY), and EPS increased to ~$0.29 (+38.10% YoY), indicating strong bottom-line leverage. The main soft spot in the snapshot is gross margin, which slipped to ~80.4% (-3.46% YoY). Overall, growth trends look healthy, but the market is currently trading the stock as if momentum is deteriorating.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst action: On 2026-01-26, JPMorgan initiated coverage at Neutral with a $25 price target (~17% upside). The tone is constructive on long-term fundamentals (market leadership, recurring revenue) but balanced by risks (customer concentration, regulatory) and the view that a better entry point may emerge. Net takeaway: Wall Street’s visible stance here is mildly positive on value/upside, but not confident enough to recommend buying immediately. Influential/insider flow: Hedge funds and insiders are reported Neutral with no significant recent trends. Congress trading: no recent data in the last 90 days.
Wall Street analysts forecast VRRM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VRRM is 29.33 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 33 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast VRRM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VRRM is 29.33 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 33 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 19.590
Low
24
Averages
29.33
High
33
Current: 19.590
Low
24
Averages
29.33
High
33
JPMorgan
Neutral
initiated
$25
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$25
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
initiated
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan initiated coverage of Verra Mobility with a Neutral rating and $25 price target, representing 17% upside potential. The company offers market leadership and stable recurring revenue, but faces risks such as customer concentration and regulatory changes, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan views Verra's long-term fundamentals as attractive, but it sees a balanced risk/reward and awaits a better entry point.
UBS
Chris Zhang
Buy
maintain
$29 -> $31
2025-10-30
Reason
UBS
Chris Zhang
Price Target
$29 -> $31
2025-10-30
maintain
Buy
Reason
UBS analyst Chris Zhang raised the firm's price target on Verra Mobility to $31 from $29 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
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