Based on the provided data and recent analyst actions, here's a concise analysis of TTEK's valuation:
Valuation Analysis: With a current PE ratio of 41.56 and EV/EBITDA of 18.62 for Q1 2025, TTEK appears overvalued compared to historical levels. The stock's valuation metrics have consistently trended higher over recent quarters.
Recent Analyst Actions: Maxim Group recently downgraded TTEK to Hold from Buy on February 6, 2025, citing concerns about reduced U.S. federal government work under the current administration. KeyBanc also lowered their price target to $45 from $49 on January 31, 2025, reflecting a lower multiple.
Federal Revenue Risk: U.S. federal government work accounted for 32.2% of fiscal 2024 revenue, up from 30.7% in 2023. USAID revenue specifically represented 13% of revenue in fiscal 2024. This high dependency on federal contracts presents a significant risk given current administrative uncertainties.
Technical Indicators: The RSI reading of 20.10 indicates the stock is currently oversold, suggesting potential short-term price support levels around the Fibonacci S1 of $32.11.
Insider Activity: Recent insider selling activity, with Director Kirsten M Volpi selling 1,671 shares, and no insider purchases in the past 6 months, adds to bearish sentiment.
The stock is currently overvalued given the significant federal revenue risk, recent analyst downgrades, and concerning insider selling patterns.