Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the recent data and news, I'll provide a comprehensive analysis of whether to buy or sell TFII stock.

Recent Price Action and Technical Analysis

The stock has experienced a significant decline, falling 20.5% after its Q4 2024 earnings release on February 20, 2025. Today (February 24, 2025), TFII closed at $90.50, down 4.45% in regular trading hours.

Key Fundamental Concerns

1. Q4 2024 Performance Issues:

• Missed consensus estimates on both EPS and revenue
• CEO Alain Bedard reported accelerating loss of profitable small and medium-sized customers
• Cost control challenges described as "like a dog chasing his tail" by management

Analyst Actions

Multiple analysts have recently lowered their price targets:

• BMO Capital: Reduced from $145 to $105
• CIBC: Lowered from $160 to $141
• RBC Capital: Decreased from $156 to $127
• TD Cowen: Cut from $165 to $135
• Veritas: Downgraded to Reduce from Buy

Legal Concerns

There are ongoing securities fraud investigations announced by multiple law firms regarding potential violations of federal securities laws.

Conclusion

SELL Recommendation: Given the combination of:

• Deteriorating fundamental business metrics
• Multiple analyst downgrades
• Technical weakness
• Legal uncertainties
• Loss of profitable customer segments

The stock appears likely to face continued pressure in the near term. Current shareholders might consider reducing exposure, while potential buyers should wait for signs of business stabilization before initiating positions.

Based on the provided data and recent market events, here's the price prediction analysis for TFII stock in 2025:

Recent Major Event Impact A significant event occurred on February 20, 2025, where TFII's stock price fell $26.13 (20.5%) to $101.48 after missing Q4 2024 earnings estimates. The company reported losing small and medium-sized customers, with this trend accelerating in Q4 2024.

Technical Analysis

• Current price: $90.50 (as of Feb 24, 2025)
• RSI (14): 10.80 indicating severely oversold conditions
• MACD: Bearish with -6.71 MACD line and -3.10 histogram
• Key support levels: $91.72 (Fibonacci S2), $100.85 (Fibonacci S1)
• Key resistance levels: $130.39 (Fibonacci R1), $139.51 (Fibonacci R2)

Fundamental Factors

• Revenue (FY2024): $8.40B
• Net Income (FY2024): $422.48M
• EPS (FY2024): $4.96
• Net Margin: 5.03%
• ROE: 16.05%

2025 Price Prediction Based on the technical and fundamental analysis, here are the three price scenarios for TFII in 2025:

1. Base Case ($115-120): Most likely scenario (60% probability)

• Recovery from oversold conditions
• Stabilization of customer base
• Support at Fibonacci pivot $115.62

2. Bearish Case ($85-90): 25% probability

• Continued loss of customers
• Further earnings misses
• Break below Fibonacci S2 support

3. Bullish Case ($130-135): 15% probability

• Strong turnaround in customer retention
• Better than expected cost control
• Break above Fibonacci R1 resistance

The most likely scenario points to a price range of $115-120 by end of 2025, representing about 27-33% upside from current levels, primarily driven by a potential recovery from oversold conditions and stabilization of the company's customer base.

The S1 support level for TFII Stock is $94.23 ,The R1 resistant level for TFII Stock is $126.74.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-26, the price of TFII Stock was $91.27.

The target price for TFII Stock according to analyst rating is 163.26, with the highest price target at 190.00 and the lowest at 136.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on TFII Stock overall.

The market cap of TFII is $7.7B.

Based on the recent data and analyst reports, TFII appears significantly overvalued at current levels. The stock has experienced a sharp decline of 20.5% following disappointing Q4 2024 results, with multiple analysts lowering their price targets. Bank of Montreal reduced its target from $145 to $105, while CIBC lowered from $160 to $141. Technical indicators show severely oversold conditions with RSI-14 at 10.80 and all major moving averages trending downward. The company is facing accelerating losses of profitable small and medium-sized customers, which has particularly intensified in Q4 2024. Management's cost control efforts have been described as ineffective, likened to "a dog chasing his tail" by CEO Alain Bedard. The stock's current trading level around $90.50 still appears expensive given the deteriorating business fundamentals and uncertain 2025 outlook.

TFI International Inc. is a transportation and logistics company, operating across the United States and Canada through its subsidiaries. The Company's segments include Package and Courier, Less-Than-Truckload, Less-Than-Truckload, and Logistics. The Package and Courier segment is engaged in pickup, transport, and delivery of items across North America. The Less-Than-Truckload segment is engaged in pickup, consolidation, transport, and delivery of smaller loads. The Truckload segment is a provider of conventional and specialized truckload services, including flatbed, tanks, dumps, and oversized. It offers specialized trailers, and a million-plus square feet of industrial warehousing space. The Logistics segment provides asset-light logistics services, including brokerage, freight forwarding and transportation management, as well as small package parcel delivery. The Company also specializes in hauling compostable and recyclable materials and in residential waste management.

Based on recent market data and analysis, TFII stock is projected to reach $140-150 by 2030, driven by the company's strong market position in transportation and logistics despite recent challenges. The recent lawsuit and Q4 2024 earnings miss have created temporary pressure, but the company's fundamentals and industry leadership suggest potential for long-term recovery and growth. Technical indicators showing oversold conditions at RSI 27.7 point to a possible rebound opportunity, though near-term volatility may persist.

TFII has a total of 25123 employees.