Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data, here's a comprehensive analysis of AFG stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently showing bearish signals with RSI at 32.25, indicating oversold conditions. The price is trading below both its 20-day (134.10) and 60-day (137.89) moving averages, suggesting a downward trend.

Recent Price Action AFG closed at $126.54 on February 10, 2025, with minimal change (-0.02%) during regular trading hours. The stock is currently trading near its Fibonacci support level of $127.15, with the next support at $123.85.

Recent Developments A significant development occurred on February 7, 2025, when Keefe Bruyette analyst Meyer Shields downgraded AFG from Outperform to Market Perform, lowering the price target from $164 to $144. The downgrade was based on:

• Expected limited reserve releases
• High casualty loss picks impacting earnings

Financial Performance The company recently reported Q4 2024 earnings:

• EPS: $3.03 (vs $3.13 last year)
• Adjusted EPS: $3.12 (beat analyst estimates of $3.01)
• Revenue: $2.149 billion (up 3.2% year-over-year)

Analyst Consensus

Recent analyst actions show a shift from bullish to neutral sentiment:

• Keefe Bruyette: Downgrade to Market Perform, PT $144
• BMO Capital: Hold rating, PT $143

Conclusion Given the recent analyst downgrade, technical weakness, and concerns about earnings pressure, selling AFG at current levels appears more prudent. The stock could face further downside pressure until it reaches stronger support levels around $123.85.

Based on recent analyst downgrades and technical indicators, AFG stock is projected to reach $135-140 by end of 2025, representing a modest 7-11% upside from current price of $126.54. The forecast considers limited reserve releases and high casualty loss picks that will pressure earnings, though solid Q4 2024 results beating estimates provide some support. Technical analysis shows RSI at 32.25 indicating oversold conditions, while the stock trades below its 20-day moving average of $134.10, suggesting potential for a technical rebound.

The S1 support level for AFG Stock is $127.15 ,The R1 resistant level for AFG Stock is $137.84.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-11, the price of AFG Stock was $127.16.

The target price for AFG Stock according to analyst rating is 148.00, with the highest price target at 164.00 and the lowest at 135.00. Analysts have a Hold rating on AFG Stock overall.

The market cap of AFG is $10.6B.

Based on the provided data, here's a comprehensive analysis of AFG's valuation:

Valuation Analysis AFG currently trades at a P/E ratio of 12.95x, which is relatively reasonable compared to its historical range of 11.61x-13.06x over the past year. The EV/EBITDA multiple stands at 10.81x, showing a slight increase from previous quarters but still within a moderate range.

Recent Price Movement The stock closed at $126.54 with minimal change (-0.02%) on February 10, 2025, showing relatively stable trading activity with a volume of 406,772 shares. The stock has been trading in a narrow range between $125.645 and $127.11 during the session.

Analyst Sentiment Recent analyst actions indicate a cautious outlook. Keefe Bruyette's analyst Meyer Shields recently downgraded AFG from Outperform to Market Perform on February 7, 2025, lowering the price target from $164 to $144. The downgrade was primarily due to expectations of limited reserve releases and high casualty loss picks that could pressure earnings.

Financial Performance The company's Q4 2024 performance exceeded expectations with EPS of $3.12 versus consensus of $3.01. Revenue grew 3.2% year-over-year to $2.149 billion, demonstrating moderate but steady growth.

Valuation Verdict At current levels, AFG appears fairly valued rather than overvalued, supported by:

1. A reasonable P/E ratio within historical range
2. Recent analyst consensus viewing the stock as fairly valued
3. Solid financial performance but with potential earnings pressure ahead
4. A moderate dividend yield of 2.21% providing additional value support

American Financial Group, Inc. is an insurance holding company. The Company is engaged in property and casualty insurance, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses. The Company operates through two segments: Property and casualty insurance and Other. Property and casualty insurance business includes specialty sub-segments: Property and transportation, which includes physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks and other specialty transportation niches, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products and other commercial property coverages; Specialty casualty, which includes primarily excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella and excess liability, and Specialty financial, which includes risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions (including equipment leasing and collateral and lender-placed mortgage property insurance), fidelity and surety products and trade credit insurance.

Based on recent analyst reports and technical analysis, AFG stock is projected to reach $165 by 2030, driven by the company's strong financial performance and market position in the insurance sector. The recent downgrade by Keefe Bruyette analyst Meyer Shields suggests near-term headwinds from limited reserve releases and high casualty loss picks, but the long-term fundamentals remain solid. The company's consistent earnings beats and revenue growth of 3.2% year-over-year indicate sustainable business momentum.

AFG has a total of 8500 employees.