AFG Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AFG performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AFG sees a -0.80% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.15% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.31%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AFG Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
2.15B
4.47%
-8.48%
Gross Margin
--
--
--
Operating Margin
15.77%
-1.13%
63.08%
Net Margin
11.87%
-7.19%
53.96%
EPS
3.04
-2.88%
40.74%
No Data Available
AFG Earnings Analysis
American Financial Group Inc Corporation (AFG.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Core Net Operating Earnings: Core net operating earnings were $10.75 per share for the full year 2024, generating a core operating return on equity of 19.3%.
Premium Growth Performance: Net written premiums grew by 7% during the year, reflecting strong business performance and market demand.
Shareholder Returns Overview: Returned $791 million to shareholders during 2024, including $545 million in special dividends and $246 million in regular common stock dividends.
Core Earnings and Return on Equity: Fourth quarter 2024 core net operating earnings per share of $3.12 produced an annualized fourth quarter core return on equity of 21.9%.
Book Value Growth 2024: For the full year 2024, growth in book value per share, excluding AOCI, plus dividends was 19.6%, demonstrating strong value creation for shareholders.
Negative
Underwriting Performance Decline: Fourth quarter 2024 combined ratio increased to 89% from 87.7% in the prior year, indicating a decline in underwriting performance.
Combined Ratio Increase: Adverse prior year development in the Specialty Casualty Group led to a combined ratio of 89% in Q4 2024, 4.4 points higher than the 84.6% reported in Q4 2023.
Premiums Decline in Q4: Fourth quarter 2024 gross and net written premiums in the Property and Transportation Group decreased by 6% year-over-year, primarily due to lower commodity pricing and elevated competition.
Combined Ratio Forecast: The 2025 business plan anticipates a combined ratio of approximately 92.5%, an increase from the 91.2% achieved in 2024, reflecting expected higher catastrophe losses and lower profitability in workers' compensation.
Wildfire Loss Projections: Estimated losses from the Southern California wildfires are projected to be between $60 million to $70 million, which could negatively impact overall financial performance.
AFG FAQs
How does AFG typically perform around its earnings report dates?
Is American Financial Group Inc (AFG) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
AFG Earning Call Sentiment
American Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE:AFG) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
AFG.N
0.61%Positive
The earnings call highlights strong financial metrics, including increased dividends and a high return on equity, which are positive indicators. However, concerns about higher expense ratios, adverse development, and unclear management responses regarding wildfire losses temper enthusiasm. The Q&A reveals uncertainties about losses and expenses, while growth in premiums is modest. The combination of strong financial performance and these concerns results in a neutral sentiment, suggesting limited stock price movement in the short term.
