Earning Analysis
Welcome to our in-depth analysis of American Financial Group Inc(AFG) earnings, offering investors a detailed look into the company’s financial performance, revenue trends, earnings per share (EPS), and market reactions. This page provides a comprehensive overview of American Financial Group Inc earnings history, forecasts, and key financial metrics, empowering you with the data needed to make informed investment decisions. Whether you're tracking quarterly results, analyzing earnings surprises, or exploring future projections, our detailed breakdown covers it all.
Earnings Forecast
Revenue
EPS
Currency: USD
Actual
Estimate
Surprise Analysis
| FY2025Q3 | 2025-11-04 | After Hours | 2.35 | 2.69 | +14.47 | 2.02B | 2.01B | -0.21 | +2.80 | +8.17 |
| FY2025Q2 | 2025-08-05 | After Hours | 2.08 | 2.14 | +2.88 | 1.77B | 1.65B | -6.86 | +2.69 | +3.26 |
| FY2025Q1 | 2025-05-06 | After Hours | 2.17 | 1.81 | -16.59 | 1.74B | 1.58B | -9.27 | -6.14 | -5.00 |
| FY2024Q4 | 2025-02-04 | After Hours | 3.20 | 3.12 | -2.50 | 1.78B | 1.85B | +3.93 | -6.23 | -6.54 |
| FY2024Q3 | 2024-11-05 | After Hours | 2.51 | 2.31 | -7.97 | 1.81B | 2.06B | +13.79 | +4.99 | +12.60 |
| FY2024Q2 | 2024-08-06 | - | 2.53 | 2.56 | +1.19 | 1.71B | 1.59B | -7.28 | +0.77 | +1.42 |
| FY2024Q1 | 2024-05-01 | - | 2.77 | 2.76 | -0.36 | 1.69B | 1.55B | -8.76 | +0.77 | +1.12 |
| FY2023Q4 | 2024-02-06 | - | 2.81 | 2.84 | +1.07 | 1.66B | 1.73B | +4.09 | +0.95 | +3.37 |
| FY2023Q3 | 2023-11-01 | - | 2.47 | 2.45 | -0.81 | 1.65B | 1.86B | +12.72 | +1.61 | +1.71 |
| FY2023Q2 | 2023-08-02 | - | 2.85 | 2.38 | -16.49 | 1.61B | 1.51B | -6.14 | +0.57 | -7.14 |
AFG Earnings Analysis
Our earnings analysis provides a granular look at the company’s performance across recent fiscal quarters, highlighting key metrics such as revenue, EPS, and operating margins. By examining actual results against analyst estimates, we uncover trends and surprises that drive stock price movements, offering valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
In the most recent quarter, American Financial Group Inc reported performance for FY2025Q3, announced on 2025-11-04. The company achieved an EPS of 2.69, compared to analyst estimates of 2.35 by 14.47% . Revenue for the quarter reached 2.01B compared to expectations of 2.02B by -0.21% .
The stock price reacted with a 2.80% one-day change and a 8.17% five-day change following the earnings release. These movements reflect market reaction in American Financial Group Inc growth trajectory and strategic initiatives.
AFG Earnings Forecast
Looking ahead, American Financial Group Inc(AFG) remains a focal point for investors seeking growth opportunities. Analyst forecasts for 2025/Q4 project quarter revenue of 1.79B and an EPS of 3.30.
However, recent estimate revisions provide additional context. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 have been Revise Downward by -0.03%, while EPS estimates have been Revise Upward by 1.29%. For the upcoming Q4 2025, revenue estimates have been adjusted Revise Downward by -2.9% . These revisions correlate with a -3.83% change in stock price over the same period, suggesting potential buying opportunities for investors who believe in American Financial Group Inc long-term fundamentals.
The relationship between earnings forecast revisions and stock price movements is critical for investors. Positive revisions in revenue or EPS often signal strengthening fundamentals, making temporary price dips attractive entry points. Conversely, downward revisions may reflect short-term challenges.
Estimate Revision
The chart shows the correlation between AFG's stock price and earnings forecast revisions. Positive revisions in Revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals, making price dips potential buying opportunities.
Revenue Estimates for FY2025
Revise Downward
-0.03%
In Past 3 Month
EPS Estimates for FY2025
Revise Upward
+1.29%
In Past 3 Month
Revenue Estimates for Q4 2025
Revise Downward
-2.9%
In Past 3 Month
Stock Price
Go Down
-3.83%
In Past 3 Month
1Y
3Y
5Y
Annual FY 2025
Currency: USD
1Y
3Y
5Y
--
Revenue Estimate-Annual FY 2025:7.05B
--
EPS Estimate-Annual FY 2025:9.57
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Stock Price133.34
AFG Revenue and EPS Performance: A Historical Perspective
American Financial Group Inc revenue and earnings per share (EPS) performance over recent quarters provides a clear picture of its financial health. Below is a detailed breakdown of the company’s earnings history, showcasing actual results, analyst estimates, and surprise percentages for key fiscal quarters:
FY2025Q3 (2025-11-04,After Hours):
EPS: 2.69 (Actual) vs.2.35 (Estimate) (14.47%)
Revenue: 2.01B (Actual) vs. 2.02B (Estimate) (-0.21%)
Price Reaction: 2.80%(1-Day), 8.17%(5-Day)
FY2025Q2 (2025-08-05,After Hours):
EPS: 2.14 (Actual) vs.2.08 (Estimate) (2.88%)
Revenue: 1.65B (Actual) vs. 1.77B (Estimate) (-6.86%)
Price Reaction: 2.69%(1-Day), 3.26%(5-Day)
FY2025Q1 (2025-05-06,After Hours):
EPS: 1.81 (Actual) vs.2.17 (Estimate) (-16.59%)
Revenue: 1.58B (Actual) vs. 1.74B (Estimate) (-9.27%)
Price Reaction: -6.14%(1-Day), -5.00%(5-Day)
Earnings Reaction
The chart below shows how AFG performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AFG sees a -0.14% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.76% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.68%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
For example, in SEP/2025, the stock changed 2.80% on the day following the earnings release and then changed by 5.28% over the next 10 days. These patterns provide investors with valuable insights into potential price movements and help inform trading strategies around earnings events.
Transcript Summary
American Financial Group Inc (AFG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-11-05
The earnings call reflects strong financial performance with a 6% increase in EPS, improved underwriting profits, and a favorable pricing environment. Despite some challenges in premiums, the company maintains a positive outlook with stable crop premiums and strategic capital deployment plans. The Q&A section highlights management's proactive approach to pricing and market trends, though some responses lacked clarity. Overall, the positive financial metrics and strategic plans suggest a likely positive stock price movement over the next two weeks.
American Financial Group Inc (AFG) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-08-06
The earnings call shows strong financial performance with a 15% increase in gross premiums, indicating growth. The Q&A reveals positive insights, such as profitability in the lender-placed business and growth opportunities in Ocean Marine and trade credit. Despite some nonrenewals and social inflation challenges, the overall sentiment is positive, with optimism in workers' compensation pricing and D&O stabilization. The company's proactive measures to adjust pricing and loss picks further support a positive outlook. However, some uncertainties remain, such as the impact of undocumented workers, but these do not overshadow the overall positive sentiment.
American Financial Group Inc (AFG) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-02-06
The earnings call highlights strong financial metrics, including increased dividends and a high return on equity, which are positive indicators. However, concerns about higher expense ratios, adverse development, and unclear management responses regarding wildfire losses temper enthusiasm. The Q&A reveals uncertainties about losses and expenses, while growth in premiums is modest. The combination of strong financial performance and these concerns results in a neutral sentiment, suggesting limited stock price movement in the short term.
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2024-11-06
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate strong financial performance, with growth in premiums and investment income, despite some adverse developments. The increase in dividends, including a special dividend, suggests confidence in financial health. The Q&A reflects management's proactive approach to challenges like social inflation and interest rate environments. While there are concerns about adverse development, the overall sentiment is positive due to strong pricing power, growth in book value, and a favorable renewal rate environment. These factors suggest a positive stock price movement over the next two weeks.
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2024-08-07
The earnings call summary reflects a positive sentiment with growth in net written premiums, improved combined ratios, and a 10% growth in book value per share. The Q&A section highlights management's proactive approach to underwriting and capital management, despite some uncertainties in commercial auto liability margins and adverse developments. The company's strong financial performance and shareholder returns support a positive stock price movement prediction over the next two weeks.
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FAQ
What were the key highlights of AFG’s latest earnings report for FY2025Q3?
How did AFG’s stock price react after the FY2025Q3 earnings release?
What are the revenue and EPS estimates for AFG for 2025/Q4?
How does AFG’s stock price correlate with earnings forecast revisions?
What should investors expect from AFG’s next earnings report?