SMCI Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how SMCI performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, SMCI sees a +5.62% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +16.25% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.58%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
SMCI Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
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SMCI Earnings Analysis
Super Micro Computer Inc Corporation (SMCI.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Q2 Revenue Projections: Preliminary fiscal Q2 net revenue projected between $5.6 billion and $5.7 billion, marking a 54% year-on-year increase at the midpoint, driven by sustained AI demand.
Q2 Earnings Growth Forecast: Preliminary fiscal Q2 non-GAAP earnings expected in the range of $0.58 to $0.60 per share, representing approximately 5% year-on-year growth from $0.56 last year.
Private Placement for Growth: Announced a private placement of $700 million in new 2.25% convertible senior notes due in 2028 to support rapid business growth, indicating strong financial backing for future initiatives.
Fiscal Year 2025 Revenue Outlook: Expecting revenue for fiscal year 2025 to be in the range of $23.5 billion to $25 billion, reflecting a solid growth trajectory despite recent challenges.
Liquid Cooling Adoption Growth: The company anticipates that over 30% of new data centers worldwide will adopt liquid cooling infrastructure within the next twelve months, driven by the rapid growth of AI, showcasing a strong market position.
Negative
Gross Margin Decline: Preliminary fiscal Q2 non-GAAP gross margin decreased to approximately 11.9%, down from 13.1% in the previous quarter, primarily due to lower margins from product and customer mix.
Operating Margin Decline: Non-GAAP operating margin fell to approximately 7.9%, down from 9.7% in Q1, reflecting the impact of lower gross margins and increased R&D investments.
Negative Cash Flow Trend: Cash used in operations was approximately $240 million, a significant decline from cash generated from operations of approximately $409 million in Q1, indicating a negative cash flow trend.
Revenue Guidance Revision: The company revised its fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance down to a range of $23.5 billion to $25 billion, from a previous range of $26 billion to $30 billion, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
Inventory Management Challenges: The closing inventory increased to approximately $3.6 billion, down from $4.9 billion last quarter, indicating potential issues with inventory management and product demand.
SMCI FAQs
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SMCI Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: Supermicro Q2 2025 sees strong AI-driven growth
SMCI.O
-15.97%Positive
The earnings call reveals strong year-on-year revenue growth and optimistic long-term guidance, but this is tempered by reduced short-term guidance, declining margins, and cash flow constraints. The Q&A highlights competitive pressures and management's reluctance to provide specifics, which may raise investor concerns. The announcement of convertible notes introduces potential dilution risk, offsetting some positive sentiment from revenue growth. Overall, the mix of positive and negative factors suggests a neutral stock price movement in the near term.
