SMCI Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how SMCI performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, SMCI sees a +7.20% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +14.64% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.06%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
SMCI Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
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SMCI Earnings Analysis
Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock Corporation (SMCI.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Strong AI Demand Surge: The preliminary fiscal Q1 net revenue was in the range of $5.9 billion to $6 billion, up 181% year-over-year, driven by strong AI demand from our old and new customers.
Earnings Growth Surge: The preliminary fiscal Q1 non-GAAP earnings ranged from $0.75 to $0.76 per share versus $0.34 last year, approximately a 122% year-on-year growth rate.
Margin Improvement: The preliminary non-GAAP gross margin is approximately 13.3% and non-GAAP operating margin is approximately 9.9%, both higher than the previous quarter as customer mix improved.
AI Supercluster Deployment: We have deployed the world's largest DLC AI supercluster with 100,000 NVIDIA GPUs in a record time-to-deployment, reflecting our engineering expertise and complex logistics capabilities for large-scale AI infrastructure deployments.
IT Solutions Growth Potential: Our total IT solutions deployments are rapidly scaling, and our new product developments are progressing smoothly, indicating strong future growth potential.
Negative
10-K Filing Delay: The company experienced a delay in the filing of its 10-K, which may impact its financial reporting timeline.
Q1 Revenue Guidance Miss: The preliminary Q1 net revenue was in the range of $5.9 billion to $6 billion, which is below the previous guidance of $6 billion to $7 billion.
Gross Margin Decline: The expected Q1 non-GAAP gross margin is approximately 13.3%, down from 11.3% last quarter, indicating a decline in profitability.
Operating Margin Analysis: The Q1 non-GAAP operating margin is approximately 9.9%, excluding $67 million in stock-based compensation expenses, compared to 7.8% in Q4, showing a decrease in operational efficiency.
Cash Flow Challenges: The company reported a negative estimated Q1 net cash position of approximately negative $0.2 billion, an improvement from negative $0.5 billion last quarter, but still indicating cash flow challenges.
SMCI FAQs
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SMCI Earning Call Sentiment
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
SMCI.O
-12.62%Positive
The earnings call shows strong financial performance with a 181% YoY revenue increase and improved margins. However, concerns over auditor resignation, regulatory challenges, and supply chain issues, along with unclear management responses in the Q&A, overshadow the positives. The lack of annual guidance and potential revenue delays due to new chip availability add to the uncertainties. Despite positive financials, these risks and uncertainties are likely to result in a negative stock price reaction over the next two weeks.