Should You Buy J M Smucker Co (SJM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
103.480
1 Day change
0.12%
52 Week Range
121.480
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/26
J.M. Smucker Co (SJM) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term focus. The stock's financial performance shows significant declines in net income and EPS, and the analyst sentiment has been largely negative with multiple downgrades and reduced price targets. While the technical indicators are neutral and options data suggests a lack of strong bearish sentiment, the lack of strong positive catalysts and the challenging outlook for the consumer staples sector make this stock a hold rather than a buy.
Technical Analysis
The MACD is positive at 0.516 but contracting, indicating a neutral trend. RSI is at 57.786, which is neutral and does not suggest overbought or oversold conditions. Moving averages are converging, showing no clear directional trend. Key support is at 98.963, and resistance is at 104.715. The stock is trading near its pivot level of 101.839, suggesting limited immediate upside.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
The open interest put-call ratio of 0.7 and option volume put-call ratio of 0.11 suggest that there is more interest in calls than puts, indicating a slightly bullish sentiment. However, the implied volatility is high at 35.16 with a 97.6% percentile, which could indicate potential price swings.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
The company declared a $1.10 per share dividend, payable on March 2, 2026, which could appeal to income-focused investors. Revenue increased by 2.59% YoY in Q2 2026, showing some top-line growth.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Net income dropped significantly by -1084.90% YoY, and EPS fell by -1082.61% YoY, indicating severe profitability challenges. Gross margin also declined by 1.69% YoY. Analysts have downgraded the stock and reduced price targets, citing competitive pressures and limited margin recovery potential. The broader consumer staples sector is expected to face a challenging year.
Financial Performance
In Q2 2026, revenue increased by 2.59% YoY to $2.33 billion. However, net income dropped drastically by -1084.90% YoY to $241.3 million, and EPS declined by -1082.61% YoY to $2.26. Gross margin decreased to 36.17%, down 1.69% YoY, reflecting operational challenges.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Analyst sentiment has been negative, with multiple downgrades and reduced price targets. Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal Weight with a price target of $105, citing competitive risks and sales pressures. Other firms like TD Cowen, UBS, and Stifel have also lowered price targets, while BofA and Bernstein provided slightly more optimistic but still cautious outlooks.
Wall Street analysts forecast SJM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SJM is 117.1 USD with a low forecast of 105 USD and a high forecast of 130 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast SJM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SJM is 117.1 USD with a low forecast of 105 USD and a high forecast of 130 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 103.360
Low
105
Averages
117.1
High
130
Current: 103.360
Low
105
Averages
117.1
High
130
Morgan Stanley
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$115 -> $105
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$115 -> $105
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley downgraded J.M. Smucker to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $105, down from $115. The firm says the U.S. food sector faces rising competitive risk as value-focused pricing, promotions, and private label momentum reaccelerate into 2026. These add to "already present" sales pressures and limit the scope for margin recovery, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Morgan Stanley downgrades J.M. Smucker following a period of solid relative share outperformance.
TD Cowen
Hold
downgrade
$111 -> $105
2026-01-08
Reason
TD Cowen
Price Target
$111 -> $105
2026-01-08
downgrade
Hold
Reason
TD Cowen lowered the firm's price target on J.M. Smucker to $105 from $111 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm adjusted price targets in consumer staples as part of a 2026 outlook. TD expects a "challenging" year for large-cap consumer staples with volume growth unlikely to improve materially from the negative 0.9% in 2025 and pricing "muted."
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