PKG Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how PKG performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, PKG sees a -0.76% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.39% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.01%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
PKG Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
2.15B
10.74%
-1.66%
Gross Margin
21.89%
3.45%
-5.44%
Operating Margin
14.16%
-0.14%
-8.94%
Net Margin
10.30%
5.53%
-5.59%
EPS
2.45
16.67%
-7.20%
No Data Available
PKG Earnings Analysis
Packaging Corp of America Corporation (PKG.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Net Income Increase: 4th quarter 2024 net income reached $221 million or $2.45 per share, an increase from $192 million or $2.13 per share in Q4 2023, reflecting strong financial performance.
Strong Revenue Increase: Record net sales of $2.1 billion in Q4 2024, up from $1.9 billion in Q4 2023, demonstrating robust revenue growth.
EBITDA Improvement Q4 2024: Total company EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $439 million, compared to $394 million in Q4 2023, indicating improved operational efficiency.
Packaging Segment Performance: The Packaging segment achieved record sales of nearly $2 billion in Q4 2024, with EBITDA of $426 million, maintaining a strong margin of 22%.
Strong Cash Generation: Cash provided by operations totaled $325 million in Q4 2024, contributing to a full year free cash flow of $521 million, underscoring strong cash generation capabilities.
Negative
Operating Costs Impact Profitability: Higher operating costs increased by $0.48 per share due to inflation, impacting overall profitability despite record sales.
Maintenance Outage Expense Impact: Scheduled maintenance outage expenses rose significantly, contributing to an expected total impact of $1.18 per share in 2025, with $0.23 in Q1 alone.
Containerboard Price Impact: Containerboard prices were up $0.46 per share year-over-year, but the mix was negatively affected, leading to a $30 million unfavorable mix impact in Q4 2024.
Flat EBITDA Amid Record Sales: Despite record sales of $2.1 billion in Q4 2024, total company EBITDA remained flat at $1.6 billion compared to 2023, indicating pressure on margins.
Rising Cost Pressures: The company anticipates higher costs in 2025 due to increased labor, energy, and chemical expenses, which are expected to further strain profitability.
PKG FAQs
How does PKG typically perform around its earnings report dates?
Is Packaging Corp of America (PKG) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
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PKG Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: Packaging Corp Q4 2024 misses EPS, stock falls
PKG.N
-0.84%Positive
The earnings call presents mixed signals. While there are positive indicators such as increased net income, sales, and EBITDA, challenges like higher operational costs and competitive pressures offset these. The Q&A session reveals concerns about cost inflation and unclear management responses regarding pricing strategies, which could worry investors. The company's guidance is somewhat optimistic, but the lack of a clear strategy on customer contracts and cost pressures tempers enthusiasm. Overall, the sentiment is balanced, leading to a neutral prediction for stock price movement.
