PKG Valuation

Packaging Corp of America

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194.960

-1.47(-0.748%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

PKG Relative Valuation

PKG's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, PKG is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Packaging Corp of America (PKG) is now in the Fair zone, suggesting that its current forward PE ratio of 18.53 is considered Fairly compared with the five-year average of 17.25. The fair price of Packaging Corp of America (PKG) is between 156.11 to 204.08 according to relative valuation methord.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

156.11-204.08

Current Price：196.43

Fair

18.53

Trailing

Forward

9.97

EV/EBITDA

Packaging Corp of America. (PKG) has a current EV/EBITDA of 9.97. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 9.73. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 7.14, Undervalued between 7.14 and 8.43, Fairly Valued between 11.02 and 8.43, Overvalued between 11.02 and 12.32, and Strongly Overvalued above 12.32. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 9.97 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

14.06

EV/EBIT

Packaging Corp of America. (PKG) has a current EV/EBIT of 14.06. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 13.53. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 9.43, Undervalued between 9.43 and 11.48, Fairly Valued between 15.58 and 11.48, Overvalued between 15.58 and 17.64, and Strongly Overvalued above 17.64. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 14.06 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

1.91

Packaging Corp of America. (PKG) has a current PS of 1.91. The 5-year average PS is 1.75. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 1.25, Undervalued between 1.25 and 1.50, Fairly Valued between 2.00 and 1.50, Overvalued between 2.00 and 2.26, and Strongly Overvalued above 2.26. The current Forward PS of 1.91 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

11.18

P/OCF

Packaging Corp of America. (PKG) has a current P/OCF of 11.18. The 5-year average P/OCF is 10.54. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 7.56, Undervalued between 7.56 and 9.05, Fairly Valued between 12.03 and 9.05, Overvalued between 12.03 and 13.52, and Strongly Overvalued above 13.52. The current Forward P/OCF of 11.18 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

21.62

P/FCF

Packaging Corp of America. (PKG) has a current P/FCF of 21.62. The 5-year average P/FCF is 17.96. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 9.11, Undervalued between 9.11 and 13.54, Fairly Valued between 22.38 and 13.54, Overvalued between 22.38 and 26.81, and Strongly Overvalued above 26.81. The current Forward P/FCF of 21.62 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

Packaging Corp of America (PKG) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 3.90. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 3.74 , the current P/B ratio is approximately 4.22% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 3.74, the current P/B ratio is about 4.34% higher. Packaging Corp of America (PKG) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately 0.00%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of 4.53%, the current FCF yield is approximately -100.00% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 4.48% , the current FCF yield is about -100.00% lower.

3.90

P/B

Median3y

3.74

Median5y

3.74

0.00

FCF Yield

Median3y

4.53

Median5y

4.48

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for PKG's competitors is 1.14, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Packaging Corp of America Corp (PKG) exhibits a P/S ratio of 1.91, which is 67.63% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of 4.63%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

PKG.N

Packaging Corp of America

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of PKG decreased by 6.26% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an increase in Margin Expansion from 9.58 to 11.12.

The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed 4.63%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of PKG in the past 1 year is driven by Margin Expansion. Which is more sustainable.

4.63%

2.08B → 2.17B

Revenue Growth

16.08%

9.58 → 11.12

Margin Expansion

-26.97%

26.84 → 19.60

P/E Change

-6.26%