Should You Buy Paccar Inc (PCAR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
122.190
1 Day change
-0.91%
52 Week Range
125.360
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
PCAR is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. Despite an overall uptrend in moving averages, near-term momentum has turned down after earnings (bearish MACD expansion) and the stock is sitting near a key pivot/support (~121.31). With no Intellectia buy signals today and post-earnings pressure on growth (YoY revenue/EPS down sharply), the risk of a near-term dip outweighs the upside for an immediate entry. Best stance now is HOLD (or wait to buy only if it cleanly reclaims ~124.70 resistance or flushes to a better risk/reward near ~118 support).
Technical Analysis
Trend is still broadly bullish on structure: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 indicates the larger trend remains up. However, momentum is weakening: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0788) and negatively expanding, signaling downside momentum building in the short term. RSI(6)=65.28 is neutral-to-high, suggesting it’s not deeply oversold (limited “buy the dip” edge right here). Key levels: Pivot support ~121.31 (price is hovering just above it pre-market); if it breaks, next supports are ~117.93 (S1) then ~115.84 (S2). Upside levels: ~124.70 (R1) then ~126.79 (R2). Net: uptrend intact, but timing is poor today due to weakening momentum near a key decision level.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment from options is moderately bullish: open interest put/call at 0.68 and volume put/call at 0.31 imply more call positioning than puts. Implied vol is elevated versus historical (IV30 ~29.91 vs HV ~25) and IV percentile 66 suggests options are relatively pricey (market is pricing more movement than usual). However, today’s option volume is below the 5D average (744 vs 944) and only ~79% of the 30D average, so the bullish skew isn’t accompanied by strong, urgent flow today.
- Optimistic 2026 outlook in commentary; narrative around margin recovery and improved pricing/volume in 2026 (echoed by JPM upgrade).
- Technical structure remains in an uptrend (bullish moving average stack).
- Pattern-based projection in dataset suggests positive 1-month expectation (+8.86%), implying upside if support holds.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Growth is contracting: Q4 2025 revenue -13.74% YoY, EPS -35.76% YoY, net income -36.14% YoY; market is reacting to the sales decline even with an EPS beat.
- Short-term momentum is deteriorating (MACD negative and expanding), increasing odds of a pullback.
- Price is near a key pivot (~121.31); a break below can trigger a move toward ~118 or ~116 quickly.
- No Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals today (no AI Stock Picker buy; no SwingMax entry), reducing conviction for an immediate buy setup.
- Broader market tone is slightly risk-off pre-market (S&P 500 -0.4%), which can pressure cyclicals.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue was $6.82B (-13.74% YoY), net income $556.9M (-36.14% YoY), EPS $1.06 (-35.76% YoY). Gross margin was 19.29%, slightly higher YoY (+0.10%), implying cost/mix discipline, but the overall trend is negative because earnings power is being dragged down by lower volumes/sales. Net: operational resilience on margin, but clear cyclical slowdown in top-line and profits.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent Street trend is mixed-to-slightly improving on targets, but ratings remain mostly cautious. JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight (PT $133 from $108) on expectations of 2026 margin recovery and share gains post Section 232 dynamics. Citi raised PT to $125 but stayed Neutral; Wells Fargo raised PT to $119 and remains Equal Weight. Wall Street pros: 2026 recovery/margin tailwinds, potential share gains, and improving cycle indicators. Cons: near-term truck/ag end-markets can remain challenged, and valuation/risk-reward viewed as balanced by cautious firms.
Wall Street analysts forecast PCAR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PCAR is 109.25 USD with a low forecast of 90 USD and a high forecast of 133 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast PCAR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PCAR is 109.25 USD with a low forecast of 90 USD and a high forecast of 133 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 123.320
Low
90
Averages
109.25
High
133
Current: 123.320
Low
90
Averages
109.25
High
133
Citi
Kyle Menges
Neutral
maintain
$120 -> $125
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
New
Reason
Citi
Kyle Menges
Price Target
$120 -> $125
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
New
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Citi analyst Kyle Menges raised the firm's price target on Paccar to $125 from $120 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
Wells Fargo
Jerry Revich
Equal Weight
maintain
$106 -> $119
2026-01-23
Reason
Wells Fargo
Jerry Revich
Price Target
$106 -> $119
2026-01-23
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo analyst Jerry Revich raised the firm's price target on Paccar to $119 from $106 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm reiterates its positive outlook for the Machinery, Industrials & Environmental Services space heading into earnings. Wells argues the Machinery supply-driven recovery is broadening to new equipment, non-residential lead indicators are accelerating, and cash conversion is improving.
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