OTLY Should I Buy
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Oatly Group AB (OTLY) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term focus. While the company shows some positive growth in revenue and gross margin, its financial health is undermined by significant declines in net income and EPS. The technical indicators and options data do not suggest a strong upward momentum, and analysts have recently lowered price targets, reflecting cautious sentiment. Given the lack of strong positive catalysts and the absence of proprietary trading signals, holding off on investing in OTLY is recommended until clearer growth signals emerge.
The MACD is positive but contracting, indicating weakening momentum. RSI is neutral at 54.921, and moving averages are converging, suggesting no clear trend. Key resistance levels are at 12.495 and 12.895, while support levels are at 11.202 and 10.802.
Q4 revenue exceeded expectations, growing 9.08% YoY. Gross margin improved significantly by 17.28% YoY. The company anticipates revenue growth of 3% to 5% in 2026, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $25 million and $35 million.
Net income dropped by 79.01% YoY, and EPS fell by 99.02% YoY. Analysts have lowered price targets, citing concerns about fundamentals and potential macroeconomic headwinds. Insider and hedge fund trading trends are neutral, indicating no strong institutional interest.
In Q4 2025, revenue increased to $233.779 million, up 9.08% YoY. However, net income dropped to -$19.143 million, down 79.01% YoY, and EPS fell to -$0.03, down 99.02% YoY. Gross margin improved to 34.54%, up 17.28% YoY.
Morgan Stanley lowered the price target to $14.50 from $16, maintaining an Equal Weight rating. Barclays reduced the price target to $15 from $18, keeping an Overweight rating but expressing concerns about fundamentals and macroeconomic risks.
