Should I Buy MFIN? MFIN 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Medallion Financial Corp (MFIN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

10.290

1 Day change

2.39%

52 Week Range

10.980

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

MFIN is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The chart is neutral-to-slightly bearish (MACD below zero, RSI neutral, MAs converging) with only modest near-term upside and a statistically negative 1-month bias (-8.78%). Options positioning (low put/call OI ratio) is bullish, and recent operating updates are constructive, but the lack of proprietary buy signals plus rising credit-loss provisions argues against chasing an immediate entry. Better stance: HOLD (or only consider buying closer to support around ~9.78).

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Price ~10.01 is sitting just below the pivot (10.065), with nearby resistance at 10.35 (R1) and support at 9.78 (S1). This is a range setup rather than a clear uptrend. Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0158 (below 0) but negatively contracting, suggesting bearish momentum is fading—not yet bullish. RSI: RSI(6) 48.4 (neutral), consistent with consolidation. Moving averages: Converging MAs confirm indecision/sideways action. Pattern-based outlook: Similar-pattern stats imply small upside next day/week (+0.29% / +3.61%) but negative 1-month expectation (-8.78%), which weakens the “buy now” case. **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Open-interest put/call ratio of 0.31 is bullish (calls dominate), suggesting traders are positioned more for upside than downside. Activity/liquidity: Option volume is extremely low today (total volume 6; call volume 0, put volume 6), so the sentiment read is mostly from open interest rather than fresh flow. Volatility: 30D IV ~39.99 vs historical vol ~38.8 (roughly aligned). IV percentile ~48.8 (mid-range), IV rank ~15.22 (low vs the past year’s range), implying options aren’t pricing an unusually large move.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

showed strong lending performance: revenue reported at $67.5M and net interest margin improved to 8.51%.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Credit risk signal: Provision for credit losses rose to $26.3M (2026-01-29), which can pressure near-term earnings and raise concerns about portfolio quality.
Technical setup lacks a clear uptrend; momentum is not convincingly bullish.
Statistical pattern read flags a negative 1-month outlook (-8.78%).
Positioning/flow: Hedge funds and insiders are neutral with no notable recent trends—no strong “smart money” confirmation.

Financial Performance

Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: $53.25M, +11.75% YoY (top-line growth remains solid). Profitability: Net income $7.76M, -9.85% YoY; EPS $0.32, -13.51% YoY (earnings pressure despite revenue growth). Interpretation: Growth is coming through, but margin/credit costs are weighing on bottom-line momentum, consistent with the later increase in credit-loss provisions mentioned in the news.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating/price target change data was provided, so a definitive trend in upgrades/downgrades can’t be confirmed. From a ‘Wall Street-style’ pro/con view based on the supplied fundamentals: Pros—improving NIM, strong originations, revenue growth; Cons—rising provisions/credit risk and weakening YoY EPS/net income. Net: mixed, not a clear consensus-style buy setup.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MFIN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MFIN is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy