Should I Buy LVWR? LVWR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy LiveWire Group Inc (LVWR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

2.390

1 Day change

-8.43%

52 Week Range

9.040

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the stock is still in a broader downtrend (bearish moving-average stack) and there are no Intellectia buy signals today.
Today’s +7.36% bounce looks more like a short-term reflex move than a confirmed trend reversal; price is still below the key pivot (2.659).
Options are extremely call-skewed and IV is very elevated into earnings (2026-02-10 pre-market), which raises the odds of a sharp move but makes the risk/reward unfavorable for a “buy now and expect quick upside” approach.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) implies the larger trend remains down despite today’s pop.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.00961), suggesting improving short-term momentum, but it’s early and not yet a confirmed reversal.
RSI (6): 39.205 (neutral-to-weak). This supports the idea of a bounce potential, but not strong enough to call a durable uptrend.
Key levels:
- Pivot: 2.659 (price 2.49 is below—near-term still weak until reclaimed)
- Support: 2.17 (S1), then 1.868 (S2)
- Resistance: 3.148 (R1), then 3.45 (R2)
Pattern-based forward look: similar-pattern stats suggest roughly a coin-flip with modest upside bias (50% chance to +0.82% next day; +2.88% next week; +2.43% next month), which is not a strong edge.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Open-interest put/call ratio at 0.04 is extremely call-heavy (bullish/speculative skew).
Volatility: 30D implied volatility ~388.58 vs historical vol ~105.17; IV percentile 90.44 indicates options are priced for an unusually large move.
Liquidity/flow: Today’s options volume is tiny (total volume 1; puts 0), so the “bullish” read is more from open interest skew than from meaningful fresh buying today.
Takeaway: Sentiment is call-tilted, but the very high IV (especially into earnings) makes buying here less attractive unless you’re explicitly trading an earnings move.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst: QDec 2025 earnings on 2026-02-10 (pre-market) can spark a large move, especially with IV elevated.
- Revenue growth trend: last reported quarter showed revenue up +28.26% YoY (2025/Q3).
- Short-term momentum improvement: MACD turning positive and price strength today could extend if the stock reclaims the 2.659 pivot.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Primary technical headwind: broad downtrend remains intact (bearish moving averages); today’s rally may fail under resistance (pivot 2.659 / R1 3.148).
- Earnings risk: with extreme IV, the market is pricing a big move—results/guidance could trigger a sharp downside reaction.
- Profitability is still deeply negative (net loss) and gross margin remains negative, suggesting the business model is still under pressure.
- No supportive near-term news flow in the last week; no clear event-driven bullish catalyst besides earnings.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3
Revenue: 5.701M, +28.26% YoY (top-line growth is a positive).
Net income: -19.395M, down -14.54% YoY (loss widened vs prior year period).
EPS: -0.10, down -9.09% YoY (worsening).
Gross margin: -50.89, improved +48.80% YoY but still negative (unit economics/scale issues remain).
Overall: growth exists, but the company is not yet demonstrating improving profitability.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating / price target change data was provided in the dataset, so a recent trend summary can’t be confirmed here.
Wall Street pros/cons view (based strictly on the provided fundamentals):
- Pros: revenue growing YoY; gross margin improving (even if still negative).
- Cons: net losses and EPS are worsening YoY; near-term outcome highly event-driven (earnings) with options pricing implying high uncertainty.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast LVWR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LVWR is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy