KNSL Should I Buy
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Kinsale Capital Group Inc (KNSL) is not a strong buy for a beginner investor with a long-term focus at this time. The stock is currently in a bearish technical trend, with no significant positive trading signals or catalysts. While the company has shown strong financial performance in the latest quarter, the slowing growth in premiums, increased competition, and insider selling raise concerns. Analysts have also lowered price targets, reflecting uncertainty about the company's near-term prospects. Given the investor's background and strategy, it is better to hold off on buying this stock until clearer positive signals emerge.
The technical indicators for KNSL are bearish. The MACD is negative and expanding downward (-3.271), the RSI is neutral at 33.545, and the moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading below key pivot levels, with support at $354.136 and resistance at $385.017.
The company's Q4 2025 financial performance showed strong YoY growth in revenue (+16.86%), net income (+27.06%), and EPS (+27.99%). Additionally, the company has committed to shareholder returns through dividend increases and share buyback authorizations.
Analysts have lowered price targets due to slower premium growth, increased competition, and concerns about valuation. Insider selling has increased significantly (+242.61% over the last month). The MACD and moving averages indicate a bearish trend, and the stock is trading below key pivot levels. Options data shows a bearish sentiment with a high Put-Call Ratio (2.57).
In Q4 2025, Kinsale Capital reported revenue of $479.4M (+16.86% YoY), net income of $138.6M (+27.06% YoY), and EPS of $5.99 (+27.99% YoY). While these figures are strong, the company's premium growth slowed to 2%, the lowest since its IPO in 2016.
Recent analyst ratings reflect a cautious stance. Cantor Fitzgerald lowered the price target to $360 and maintained a Neutral rating, citing growth concerns and AI disintermediation fears. Wells Fargo reduced the target to $447 but maintained an Overweight rating, noting competition in large account property. Jefferies and Truist also lowered price targets, citing slower growth and rising competition. Analysts remain divided, with some seeing long-term potential but acknowledging near-term challenges.
