Should You Buy KB Home (KBH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
57.780
1 Day change
-0.29%
52 Week Range
69.640
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. KBH is sitting just above near-term support, but momentum remains bearish (negative/expanding MACD) and options flow skews defensive (put-heavy volume). With recent analyst downgrades/target cuts and weak latest-quarter growth/margins, odds favor choppy-to-down trading unless the stock cleanly reclaims the ~$59.5 pivot and holds it.
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum: Bearish-to-neutral. MACD histogram is negative (-0.228) and expanding lower, signaling downside momentum is still building. RSI(6) at ~34.6 is near oversold (early stabilization potential), but not yet a strong reversal signal.
Levels: Price 57.26 is just above S1 ~56.89; a break below raises risk toward S2 ~55.27. Upside must reclaim pivot ~59.50 first; then resistance is ~62.11 and ~63.73.
Moving averages: Converging MAs imply consolidation, but with MACD negative, the balance of evidence suggests consolidation with downside bias.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: No signal on given stock today. (AI Stock Picker: no signal; SwingMax: no recent signal.)
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern stats suggest only a moderate bounce probability (50% chance) with modest expected gains (+3.24% next day / +2.78% next week / +4.31% next month), not strong enough to override bearish momentum and fundamentals.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Slightly bearish/defensive. Open interest put-call ~1.06 is mildly put-heavy (hedging/cautious positioning). More importantly, volume put-call ~2.7 is strongly put-dominant, implying near-term traders are leaning bearish or buying protection.
Activity/vol: Today’s option volume (952) is elevated vs 30-day average (~152%), suggesting a meaningful sentiment signal. IV(30d) ~38.6 vs HV ~27.1 indicates options are pricing above realized volatility (market expecting larger moves).
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
1
Positive Catalysts
and Barclays remains Overweight (PT $62), implying valuation/upside case exists if 2026 conditions improve.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Event/News sentiment risk: Leadership transition can also create near-term uncertainty about strategy execution and margin discipline.
Options market is signaling caution (put-heavy volume).
Fundamentals/margins: Latest quarter shows sharp YoY deterioration across revenue, EPS, and gross margin, which aligns with a tougher competitive environment and rate-sensitive demand.
Macro/industry: Multiple analysts cite elevated inventories, competitive incentives (mortgage buydowns), and a potential 2026 "reset" year for homebuilders.
No supportive flows from big holders: Hedge funds and insiders are described as Neutral with no significant recent trend.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Reported results show significant YoY contraction: revenue -73.38% to 532.441M, net income -45.26% to 103.639M, EPS -38.10% to 1.56, and gross margin down sharply (7.42, -64.88% YoY). Overall, this is a clear negative growth/margin trend in the most recent quarter, consistent with tougher pricing/incentive pressure and/or mix shifts.
Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available (no signal of political buying/selling).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Net cautious. Since late Dec 2025 into Jan 2026, there were multiple price-target cuts and at least one downgrade (Raymond James to Market Perform). JPMorgan cut PT to $50 (Neutral) and highlighted lower expected ROE (about 6% in FY26 vs 11% in 2025). RBC cut PT to $54 (Sector Perform). Keefe Bruyette and BofA stayed Market Perform/Neutral with PTs around low 60s, while Barclays stayed Overweight (PT $62) and UBS stayed Buy (PT $71).
Wall Street pros: Bull case is constrained housing supply and improved 2026 setup if inventories stabilize and macro improves (UBS/Barclays). Bear case is margin/ROE compression, competitive incentives, weaker demand/backlog, and a tougher 2026 environment (JPM/RBC/BofA/Raymond James). Overall, the balance of commentary leans “wait-and-see,” not “buy aggressively now.”
Wall Street analysts forecast KBH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KBH is 58.38 USD with a low forecast of 50 USD and a high forecast of 71 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast KBH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KBH is 58.38 USD with a low forecast of 50 USD and a high forecast of 71 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 57.950
Low
50
Averages
58.38
High
71
Current: 57.950
Low
50
Averages
58.38
High
71
BofA
Rafe Jadrosich
Neutral
maintain
$58 -> $63
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
BofA
Rafe Jadrosich
Price Target
$58 -> $63
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
maintain
Neutral
Reason
BofA analyst Rafe Jadrosich raised the firm's price target on KB Home to $63 from $58 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. After underperforming the market in 2025, homebuilder stocks have rallied sharply year-to-date, but the firm believes weaker employment and migration trends, ongoing inflation and a more competitive selling environment driven by elevated new and resale inventory will pressure fundamentals through 2026 and make it a "reset year for homebuilders," the analyst tells investors in a year ahead note on the group.
UBS
Buy
maintain
$77 -> $71
2026-01-06
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$77 -> $71
2026-01-06
maintain
Buy
Reason
UBS lowered the firm's price target on KB Home to $71 from $77 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. UBS believes 2026 is poised to be a better year for homebuilding, as builders have moderated production, helping to stabilize/reduce inventory in certain key markets, while overall housing supply remains constrained relative to history, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm thinks incremental improvement in the macro could catalyze sentiment and the stocks.
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