Should You Buy Honda Motor Co Ltd (HMC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
30.290
1 Day change
2.96%
52 Week Range
34.890
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/29
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. The chart is in a clear downtrend (bearish moving averages + weakening MACD), and near-term pattern stats skew negative (next day/week). While HMC looks closer to a potential oversold bounce area near support, there is no proprietary buy signal today and options flow is mixed-to-bearish for the very short term. Best action today: HOLD / do not initiate a new long position right now.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: Last price ~29.61, sitting right on S1 (~29.621) and above S2 (~29.144). That means support is being tested; a clean reclaim of the pivot (~30.393) would be a more constructive entry signal.
Trend: Bearish structure with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5, indicating the stock is trending down across short/medium/long windows.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.107 and negatively expanding = downside momentum is still building.
RSI: RSI_6 ~28.99 (near-oversold). This supports the idea of a possible short-term bounce, but it is not confirmation of a reversal by itself.
Pattern-based forward look (provided): ~90% chance of -2.39% next day, -1.9% next week, +4.5% next month — suggesting near-term pressure with a potential 1-month recovery.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment read: Open-interest put/call at 0.51 is call-heavy positioning (more bullish longer-horizon positioning). However, today’s option volume put/call at 2.03 shows puts dominated trading activity today (more near-term hedging/bearishness).
Volatility: IV30 ~25.94 vs historical vol ~22.48 (slightly elevated IV), but IV percentile ~25 and IV rank ~5.35 indicate IV is not extreme. Net: options suggest mixed sentiment—structural positioning leans bullish, but today’s flow leans defensive/bearish short-term.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
Next earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-09 (pre-market). A solid print could reverse the current bearish technical setup.
Latest quarter profitability improved: Net income +16.44% YoY and EPS +42.86% YoY (supports longer-term fundamental resilience even with softer revenue).
Possible 1-month mean reversion: provided pattern stats show +4.5% next month despite weak near-term odds.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Macro/industry headwind: news projects U.S. auto sales declining in 2026 (16.3M units), which can pressure sector sentiment and near-term demand expectations.
Technical downtrend is intact: bearish moving averages and worsening MACD indicate sellers still control trend.
Support being tested: price is sitting right at/just below S1 (~29.621). If it fails, next notable support is S2 (~29.144).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2026/Q2. Revenue fell to 35,894,889,623.03 (-0.75% YoY), signaling soft top-line growth. Profitability improved with Net Income 781,046,448.03 (+16.44% YoY) and EPS 0.20 (+42.86% YoY). However, Gross Margin declined to 20.37 (-4.46% YoY), implying cost/price pressure. Overall: earnings growth is positive, but margin compression and slightly negative revenue growth weaken the quality of that improvement.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating trend or price target change data was provided in the dataset, so a true ‘recent trend’ summary cannot be verified here. Wall Street-style pros (based on provided fundamentals): improving EPS/net income and a major global brand could support long-term value. Cons: revenue softness, declining gross margin, and an auto-demand headwind narrative can keep sentiment muted in the near term. Influential/political trading: no recent congress trading data available; hedge fund and insider activity reported as neutral.
Wall Street analysts forecast HMC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HMC is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Analyst Rating
0
Wall Street analysts forecast HMC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HMC is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Buy
Hold
Sell
0
Current: 29.420
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
0
Current: 29.420
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
Macquarie
James Hong
Outperform -> Neutral
downgrade
¥1,400
AI Analysis
2025-06-24
Reason
Macquarie
James Hong
Price Target
¥1,400
AI Analysis
2025-06-24
downgrade
Outperform -> Neutral
Reason
Macquarie analyst James Hong downgraded Honda to Neutral from Outperform with a 1,400 yen price target.
DBS Bank
Buy
to
Hold
downgrade
$1,500
2025-05-14
Reason
DBS Bank
Price Target
$1,500
2025-05-14
downgrade
Buy
to
Hold
Reason
DBS Bank downgraded Honda to Hold from Buy with a 1,500 yen price target.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for HMC
