Stock Price Prediction

Technical Analysis

Based on recent price action and technical indicators for HGTY, the stock shows bearish signals in the short term:

• Current price: $9.90, down 1.10% from previous close
• Trading volume increased by 11,000 shares on declining prices, potentially signaling further downside pressure
• Stock is in a falling trend channel with resistance levels at $10.06 and $9.91
• Support level identified at $9.86 based on accumulated volume

Fundamental Analysis & Recent Events

• Q4 2024 Results (Released March 4, 2025):
  • Revenue: $292 million (+19% YoY)
  • Written premiums grew 13%
  • Commission and fee revenue rose 15% to $89 million
  • Adjusted EPS: $0.02

2025 Guidance:

• Net income projection: $102-110 million (+30-40% YoY)
• Written premium growth: 13-14%
• Total revenue growth: 12-13%
• Elevated technology investments of over $20 million expected

Insider Activity:

• Concerning signal: 122 insider sales with zero purchases in past 6 months
• Recent notable sale: Director Robert Kauffman sold 6,590 shares

Price Prediction for Next Week

Based on technical analysis and recent fundamentals:

Bearish Case (60% probability):

• Target: $9.20-9.40
• Drivers: Falling trend continuation, heavy insider selling, elevated investment costs

Neutral Case (30% probability):

• Target: $9.70-10.00
• Drivers: Support at $9.86 holds, positive earnings momentum

Bullish Case (10% probability):

• Target: $10.20-10.40
• Drivers: Strong revenue growth, potential short-term oversold bounce

Recommendation: SELL

Rationale:

• Negative technical signals
• Heavy insider selling activity
• Near-term margin pressure from technology investments
• Stock likely to test support levels around $9.20-9.40 next week