HCA Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how HCA performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, HCA sees a +1.14% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.05% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.89%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
HCA Key Earning Data
HCA Earnings Analysis
Positive
Earnings Per Share Increase: Diluted earnings per share as adjusted increased 5.4% in the 4th quarter compared to the prior year, despite the financial impact of hurricanes estimated at approximately $0.60 per share.
Strong Revenue Demand: Revenue growth was approximately 6%, with same facility net revenue per equivalent admissions increasing 2.9% over the prior year, indicating strong demand and payer mix.
Adjusted EBITDA Growth: For the full year 2024, adjusted EBITDA increased by 9% over the prior year, reflecting solid operational performance despite challenges from hurricanes.
Operational Cash Flow Increase: Cash flow from operations was $10.5 billion for the year, representing an 11% increase over the prior year, showcasing strong financial health and operational efficiency.
Share Repurchase and Dividend Increase: The Board of Directors authorized a new $10 billion share repurchase program and increased the quarterly dividend from $0.66 to $0.72 per share, reflecting confidence in the company's financial position.
Negative
EBITDA Margin Decline: Adjusted EBITDA margin declined by 60 basis points compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to the impact of hurricanes, which had a 100 basis point unfavorable impact on adjusted EBITDA margin.
Hurricane Financial Impact: The estimated financial impact from hurricanes in Q4 was approximately $200 million, equating to a loss of $0.60 per diluted share, which negatively affected overall earnings.
Hurricane Impact on Earnings: Full year 2024 results were adversely impacted by hurricanes, with an estimated total impact of $250 million or $0.73 per diluted share, indicating significant losses due to natural disasters.
Respiratory Season Impact: The 4th quarter saw a depressed respiratory season, which contributed to a 1-point drag on same facility admission growth and a 2-point drag on emergency room visits compared to the prior year.
Medicaid Reimbursement Challenges: The guidance for 2025 anticipates a potential $250 million headwind from Medicaid supplemental payment programs, reflecting a challenging outlook for reimbursement in the upcoming year.
HCA FAQs
How does HCA typically perform around its earnings report dates?
HCA's stock performance around earnings reports can vary, but historical data shows specific patterns, such as a +1.14% change leading up to the report and a +1.05% change in the 10 days following the release.
Is Earnings call transcript: HCA Holdings beats Q4 2024 EPS forecast but stock dips positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
HCA Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: HCA Holdings beats Q4 2024 EPS forecast but stock dips
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