Should I Buy GSHD? GSHD 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

62.720

1 Day change

0.18%

52 Week Range

127.990

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to act immediately. The stock is in a clear bearish trend (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) with worsening downside momentum (MACD histogram negative and expanding). Although the RSI is extremely oversold (RSI_6 ≈ 8.9), that alone is not enough to justify an immediate long-term entry given the ongoing negative trend and recent Wall Street target cuts tied to competitive and growth headwinds. If you must act today, this setup is more consistent with a short-term dead-cat bounce attempt than a clean long-term buy.

Technical Analysis

Price: ~$62.27 (closed), down -1.53% on the day. Trend/Momentum: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), and MACD histogram is -0.996 and negatively expanding, signaling strengthening downside momentum. Overbought/Oversold: RSI_6 ~8.896 = extremely oversold, which can trigger short-lived rebounds, but does not confirm a trend reversal by itself. Key levels: Pivot ~68.05 (overhead), Resistance R1 ~72.86, R2 ~75.83. Support S1 ~63.23 (near current price, recently lost/being tested), deeper support S2 ~60.26. Pattern/near-term odds (model): modest/uncertain bounce odds near-term (next day +1.26% probability 50%), but weaker outlook beyond that (next week -0.13%, next month -2.89%). Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment from options: Open interest put/call ratio at 0.12 is very call-heavy (bullish/optimistic positioning), but today’s options volume is extremely low (call volume 0; put volume 38), so the signal is not strongly confirmed by active trading. Volatility: 30D IV ~50.48 vs historical vol ~41.47 (options pricing in elevated movement). IV percentile ~52.8 (mid-range). Note: IV has been drifting down vs the 5D avg (5D ~57.26, 10D ~53.07), suggesting fear/premium may be easing slightly even as the stock remains weak.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Product/strategy upside (from analyst notes): the quote-to-issue “digital agent” initiative could support a stronger recovery narrative into 2027 if execution improves.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Strong downtrend with deteriorating momentum: bearish MA stack plus expanding negative MACD increases risk that oversold becomes ‘more oversold’.
Analyst caution on fundamentals: competitive pressure in home/auto (notably Texas) and potential continued revenue misses/retention hiccups cited as ongoing risks for the next couple of quarters.
No supportive news flow in the past week to shift sentiment or provide an immediate catalyst.
Wall Street price targets have been cut recently, typically reflecting reduced confidence in near-term upside.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth: Revenue rose to ~$90.44M, +15.89% YoY (solid top-line growth). Profitability: Net income increased to ~$7.91M, +4.62% YoY, but EPS was ~$0.29 (flat YoY), implying that per-share earnings momentum is not keeping pace with revenue growth (possible margin/expense/share-count pressures). Overall read: positive revenue growth, but earnings leverage looks limited in the latest reported quarter.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst trend: leaning cautious/neutral with lowering targets. - 2026-01-07: JPMorgan cut PT to $80 from $85, maintained Neutral; cited a more challenging P&C fundamental backdrop, with headwinds better reflected in sentiment/valuation. - 2025-11-25: BMO cut PT to $79 from $110, maintained Market Perform; highlighted elevated competition in Texas and near-term risk of revenue/retention issues, with potential recovery later (2027) if the digital agent effort pays off. Wall Street pros vs cons (summary): Pros: still sees potential for longer-term product-driven recovery; targets ($79–$80) remain above the current price. Cons: near-term execution/competition headwinds and the fact that targets were reduced materially, implying lower conviction in a quick rebound. Influential/insider activity: Hedge funds neutral (no notable trend last quarter). Insiders neutral (no notable trend last month). Congress trading: no recent data available.

11 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast GSHD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GSHD is 91.7 USD with a low forecast of 43 USD and a high forecast of 140 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

5 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 62.610

Low

Averages

91.7

High

140

Current: 62.610

Low

Averages

91.7

High

140

JPMorgan

Neutral

downgrade

$85 -> $80

AI Analysis

2026-01-07

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$85 -> $80

AI Analysis

2026-01-07

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Goosehead Insurance to $80 from $85 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the property and casualty insurance sector as part of its 2026 outlook. While fundamentals in the P&C sector "are getting more challenging," pricing, margin, and growth headwinds "seem better reflected in sentiment and valuation levels," the analyst tells investors in a research note.

BMO Capital

Market Perform

downgrade

$110 -> $79

2025-11-25

Reason

BMO Capital

Price Target

$110 -> $79

2025-11-25

downgrade

Market Perform

Reason

BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on Goosehead Insurance to $79 from $110 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The firm believes that the increased competition in home/auto in Texas still presents a risk to Goosehead for at least another two quarters, and while the quote-to-issue "digital agent" launch could set up a potential hockey-stick-like recovery for 2027, continued revenue misses from elevated shopping levels and retention hiccups are possible, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for GSHD

Unlock Now

GSHD Should I Buy

GSHD Should I Buy

Should You Buy Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch