Should You Buy Green Plains Inc (GPRE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
12.090
1 Day change
1.34%
52 Week Range
12.310
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
GPRE is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor with $50k–$100k who wants to act immediately. The stock is in a short-term uptrend and options sentiment is bullish, but the price is already near key resistance (~$12.14) with limited upside versus Wall Street targets ($10–$12) and the latest quarterly fundamentals (2025/Q3) show sharp YoY declines. With earnings coming (2026-02-05 pre-market) and a bearish 1-month pattern implication (-7.87%), the risk/reward at $11.85 is unfavorable for a fresh long-term entry. Prefer a better entry closer to support (~$10.94) rather than buying here.
Technical Analysis
Trend/price action: Bullish short-term structure with moving averages aligned positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), supporting an ongoing uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0807) but contracting, implying bullish momentum is fading rather than strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6)=67, near the upper end of neutral—close to ‘getting stretched’ without being a clear overbought reversal signal.
Levels: Pivot 11.539. Immediate resistance R1 ~12.142 (price is close at 11.85), then R2 ~12.515. Support S1 ~10.935 then S2 ~10.562. Upside looks capped near resistance while downside to support is meaningful.
Pattern-based forward bias: Similar-pattern stats suggest +0.55% next day, +2.59% next week, but -7.87% over the next month—more consistent with near-term pop risk followed by pullback.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Put/Call ratios are very low (OI PCR 0.42; Volume PCR 0.08), indicating bullish skew and heavier call activity.
Activity: Today’s options volume 958 vs 30D average shows elevated interest (today vs avg ~27.54), and open interest is large (calls 81,035 vs puts 34,366).
Volatility: 30D IV ~85% vs historical vol ~104% with IV percentile ~20 suggests IV is relatively low vs its own recent history—often associated with less expensive options and sometimes calmer implied expectations.
News-linked flow: Recent news highlighted unusually large volume in Feb 2026 $14 calls (bullish speculation). Overall, options market tone is bullish, but it can also reflect short-term positioning rather than long-term conviction.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Technical backdrop: Price trend remains bullish (moving-average stack), which can support continued near-term strength.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Fundamental deterioration: 2025/Q3 showed significant YoY declines in revenue (-22.81%), net income (-75.26%), EPS (-77.61%), and gross margin (-31.90%).
Resistance overhead: Price is approaching key resistance around ~$12.14; upside may be limited without a clear new catalyst.
Analyst ceiling: Recent targets cluster around $10–$12; at ~$11.85 the stock is already near the high end of that range.
Event risk: Earnings on 2026-02-05 (pre-market) could reprice the stock sharply.
No notable supportive flow: Hedge funds/insiders trends reported as neutral; no recent Congress trading data available.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter (2025/Q3): Revenue $508.49M (-22.81% YoY), Net Income $11.93M (-75.26% YoY), EPS $0.15 (-77.61% YoY), Gross Margin 5.38 (-31.90% YoY). Overall, growth trends were negative YoY across sales, profitability, and margins—weak support for a confident long-term buy at current levels.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent changes are mixed-to-neutral. On 2025-11-06, BMO Capital raised its price target to $12 (from $9) and maintained Market Perform, citing Q3 EBITDA beat and 45Z tax credit capture and expecting solid Q4. The same day, Roth Capital downgraded to Neutral from Buy with a $10 target, arguing the shares have reached the target and that crush margins may contract seasonally, also questioning the conservatism of 45Z accounting.
Wall Street pros: Potential 45Z tax credit tailwind and evidence of better-than-expected EBITDA in Q3.
Wall Street cons: Limited upside versus targets near current price, seasonal margin pressure risk, and concerns about accounting conservatism/quality of earnings.
Wall Street analysts forecast GPRE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GPRE is 11.5 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 15 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GPRE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GPRE is 11.5 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 15 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
2 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 11.930
Low
9
Averages
11.5
High
15
Current: 11.930
Low
9
Averages
11.5
High
15
BMO Capital
Andrew Strelzik
Market Perform
maintain
$9 -> $12
AI Analysis
2025-11-06
Reason
BMO Capital
Andrew Strelzik
Price Target
$9 -> $12
AI Analysis
2025-11-06
maintain
Market Perform
Reason
BMO Capital analyst Andrew Strelzik raised the firm's price target on Green Plains to $12 from $9 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The company's Q3 EBITDA exceeded $33M consensus on strong ethanol results and 45Z tax credit capture, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Green Plains expects a solid Q4 performance given hedges and another $15M-$25M in tax credit contribution, the firm added.
Roth Capital
Craig Irwin
Buy
to
Neutral
downgrade
$10
2025-11-06
Reason
Roth Capital
Craig Irwin
Price Target
$10
2025-11-06
downgrade
Buy
to
Neutral
Reason
Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin downgraded Green Plains to Neutral from Buy with an unchanged price target of $10 post the Q3 report. The firm says the shares have reached the price target while crush margins should contract seasonally into winter. In addition, Green Plains' 45Z accounting in Q3 "is clearly not conservative," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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