Should I Buy GBX? GBX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

49.380

1 Day change

-0.56%

52 Week Range

67.590

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

Not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor with $50k–$100k who wants to act immediately. GBX’s longer-term moving averages look constructive, but near-term momentum is weakening (negative/expanding MACD) and options flow is showing heavy put activity (bearish). With the latest quarter showing clear YoY declines in revenue, earnings, and margins, and Wall Street ratings mixed-to-cautious, the risk/reward is not attractive enough to initiate a new long position at today’s price (~$49.38).

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: While the moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), momentum is fading: MACD histogram is negative (-0.086) and expanding lower, suggesting downside pressure is building. RSI(6) at ~44.9 is neutral-to-slightly weak (not oversold). Key levels: Price (49.38) is below the pivot (50.067), implying a near-term bearish tilt unless it reclaims ~50.07. Immediate support is S1 48.803 then S2 48.021; resistance is R1 51.331 then R2 52.113. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment read: Open-interest put/call ratio of 0.64 is moderately bullish positioning (more call OI than put OI). However, the option volume put/call ratio is 7.19 with put volume (115) vastly exceeding call volume (16), and today’s total volume is ~172% of the 30-day average—this is a strong near-term defensive/bearish signal. Volatility: 30D implied vol (~85.7) is far above historical vol (~30.7), indicating elevated uncertainty and that options are pricing large moves; this typically aligns with caution rather than a clean long entry.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

1) Technical backdrop still supported by bullish moving-average stack (medium/long trend not broken).
2) Susquehanna (2026-01-26) raised price target to $60 and kept a Positive rating, citing “soft but stable” railcar backdrop and better-than-feared locomotive conditions.
3) No negative news headline flow in the past week (no fresh event shock).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

1) Options flow is sharply bearish near-term (very high put/call volume ratio) despite relatively bullish open-interest positioning.
2) Momentum deterioration (negative and expanding MACD histogram) with price below pivot (~50.07).
3) Fundamental downshift in the latest quarter: revenue, EPS, net income, and gross margin all down materially YoY.
4) Wall Street caution: Goldman initiated with Sell and $38 target; BofA remains Underperform (even after raising PT to $49).
5) Macro/industry overhangs referenced by analysts: soft North America railcar environment, tariff uncertainty, and concerns around rail consolidation.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter (2026/Q1): Revenue $706.1M (-19.39% YoY), Net Income $36.4M (-34.18% YoY), EPS $1.14 (-33.72% YoY), Gross Margin 14.63% (-26.19% YoY). Overall, this is a clear YoY deceleration across growth and profitability, which weakens the long-term “buy now” case at current levels.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Mixed and volatile. Susquehanna upgraded its price target (to $60) while staying Positive (2026-01-26). BofA raised its price target (to $49) but stayed Underperform and highlighted that core results were weaker once non-core gains were adjusted out (2026-01-09). Goldman initiated Sell with a $38 target (2025-11-21), citing cyclical headwinds and potential medium-term overhangs. Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros: Potential stability in the rail backdrop and international momentum (Susquehanna), and the stock has held a constructive longer-term technical structure. Cons: Multiple firms emphasize cyclicality/headwinds; at least one major bank remains Underperform and Goldman is outright Sell, reinforcing that upside is not a consensus view at current levels. Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available; hedge fund/insider trend data shows Neutral with no significant recent activity.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast GBX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GBX is 46.33 USD with a low forecast of 38 USD and a high forecast of 52 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

0 Hold

2 Sell

Moderate Sell

Current: 49.660

Low

Averages

46.33

High

Current: 49.660

Low

Averages

46.33

High

Susquehanna

Positive

maintain

$52 -> $60

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

New

Reason

Susquehanna

Price Target

$52 -> $60

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

New

maintain

Positive

Reason

Susquehanna raised the firm's price target on Greenbrier to $60 from $52 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm adjusted rail equipment targets as part of a 2026 outlook. The North America railcar backdrop is "soft but stable," with locomotive better than feared and momentum in international, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Susquehanna also sees some lingering tariff uncertainty.

BofA

Underperform

maintain

$41 -> $49

2026-01-09

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$41 -> $49

2026-01-09

maintain

Underperform

Reason

BofA raised the firm's price target on Greenbrier to $49 from $41 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares after the company reported fiscal Q1 EPS of $1.14, above the firm's 84c forecast. However, results include $17M, or 30c per share in gains on asset disposition and a 15c per share below-the-line gain in minority interest/equity earnings, so core results missed the firm's target by 31c per share, the analyst noted. Following the report, the firm increased its FY26 EPS view by 4% to $4.40, but lowers its FY27 estimate 6% to $4.40.

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GBX Should I Buy

GBX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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