GBX Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how GBX performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, GBX sees a +1.35% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +4.44% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.28%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
GBX Key Earning Data
GBX Earnings Analysis
Positive
EBITDA and Gross Margin Growth: In Q1, Greenbrier generated EBITDA of $145 million along with a robust aggregate gross margin of 19.8%, reflecting a 480 basis point year-over-year improvement.
Record Gross Margins: We achieved our highest aggregate gross margins since the peak years of the last decade.
Railcar Delivery and Margin: In Q1, we delivered 6,000 new railcars, contributing to a strong manufacturing gross margin of 17.1%.
Lease Fleet Expansion: Greenbrier's lease fleet grew by 1,200 units in the quarter with stable fleet utilization of roughly 99%.
Recurring Revenue Increase: Recurring revenue on a trailing four-quarter basis is $148 million or 32% higher than our starting point.
Negative
Quarterly Revenue Record: Revenue in the quarter of $876 million represents a new first-quarter record for Greenbrier, but the decrease compared to Q4 was primarily attributed to lower deliveries resulting from reduced syndication activity.
Railcar Surplus Analysis: The actual surplus of railcars is lower than reported since many railcars in storage are either candidates for replacement, out of regulatory compliance, or support commodities in secular decline like coal.
Quarterly Tax Rate Analysis: Our quarterly tax rate of 37.8% was higher than the fourth quarter mainly due to the geographic mix of earnings and the impact of unfavorable items related to foreign currency exchange rates.
Strong Q1 Earnings Performance: Net earnings attributable to Greenbrier of $55 million generated diluted earnings per share of $1.72 and was the strongest first-quarter earnings per share since 2016, but this reflects a significant increase in earnings expectations that may not be sustainable.
Revenue Decline Analysis: The decrease in revenue compared to Q4 was primarily attributed to lower deliveries resulting from reduced syndication activity.
GBX FAQs
How does GBX typically perform around its earnings report dates?
GBX's stock performance around earnings reports can vary, but historical data shows specific patterns, such as a +1.35% change leading up to the report and a +4.44% change in the 10 days following the release.
