Should You Buy Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
39.490
1 Day change
2.76%
52 Week Range
40.310
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy now for a long-term beginner portfolio. FSBC is in a constructive uptrend (bullish moving averages), just reported a strong 2025/Q4 with accelerating earnings and revenue growth, and increased its dividend. Wall Street is more “neutral” on valuation at current levels, but the business momentum (loan/deposit growth and 2026 balance sheet growth outlook) supports owning it now rather than waiting for a perfect pullback.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Bullish alignment with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 signals an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.089) but contracting, which suggests the uptrend is still intact while upside momentum has recently cooled.
RSI: RSI_6 at ~54 is neutral—neither overbought nor oversold—consistent with a trend that can continue without needing a major reset.
Key levels: Pivot ~38.12 is the near-term decision area (price ~38.41 is just above it). Downside supports: 36.37 (S1), then 35.28 (S2). Upside resistances: 39.87 (R1), then 40.95 (R2). A clean push above ~39.87 would improve the near-term breakout setup.
Near-term pattern odds: The provided pattern-based projection points to mild weakness over 1 week to 1 month (-1.43% / -2.06%), so expect some chop; however, the broader technical stack remains bullish.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment from positioning: Open interest put/call ratio of 0.03 is extremely call-heavy, implying bullish positioning.
Liquidity/conviction check: Reported options volume is 0 today (and low averages), so the sentiment read is less reliable—this looks more like thin options activity rather than strong, fresh speculative demand.
Volatility: 30D IV (~58.8) is notably above historical vol (~36.6), implying the options market is pricing higher uncertainty than recent realized movement.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
2025/Q4 earnings strength (reported 2026-01-27): Net income $17.6M (+35% YoY) and EPS $0.83 (+31.75% YoY), with revenue +23.73% YoY.
Dividend catalyst: Quarterly dividend increased to $0.25/share (first increase since April 2023), supportive for long-term, income-oriented holders.
Growth engine: 2025 total loans +15% and deposits +18%; management guiding for ~10% balance sheet growth in 2026, signaling continued organic expansion.
Positioning/flows: Hedge funds and insiders are reported as neutral (no negative trend pressure).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Valuation/entry-point pushback from analysts: Stephens downgraded to Equal Weight citing shares as fairly valued and preferring a better entry point.
Momentum cooling: MACD is positive but contracting, suggesting near-term upside may be slower.
Thin options market: With near-zero volume, options “bullishness” can be misleading.
Near-term statistical drift: Pattern-based outlook skews slightly negative over the next week/month, implying possible short-term consolidation after the recent run.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Growth trends: Revenue $43.10M (+23.73% YoY), Net Income $17.64M (+32.48% YoY), EPS $0.83 (+31.75% YoY). This is a clear acceleration in profitability and top-line growth.
Balance sheet/business momentum (from news): 2025 loans +15% and deposits +18%, and management expects ~10% balance sheet growth in 2026—consistent with a bank that is expanding rather than just riding rate conditions.
Shareholder return: Dividend was increased, reinforcing confidence in earnings durability.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Ratings and targets are neutral-to-mixed. Keefe Bruyette raised its price target to $40 from $35 (Market Perform). Stephens later downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight with a $37 target, explicitly citing fair relative valuation despite calling Q3 strong.
Wall Street pros: Improving fundamentals, solid growth outlook, and a higher dividend.
Wall Street cons: Stock seen as closer to fair value today (less obvious upside), leading to more neutral ratings.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders show neutral activity.
Wall Street analysts forecast FSBC stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FSBC is 38 USD with a low forecast of 37 USD and a high forecast of 40 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FSBC stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FSBC is 38 USD with a low forecast of 37 USD and a high forecast of 40 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 38.430
Low
37
Averages
38
High
40
Current: 38.430
Low
37
Averages
38
High
40
DA Davidson
Buy
maintain
$43 -> $45
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
Reason
DA Davidson
Price Target
$43 -> $45
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
DA Davidson raised the firm's price target on Five Star Bancorp to $45 from $43 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q4 results once again exceeded expectations, with stronger than expected net interest income growth and net interest margin expansion, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Stephens
Stephens
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$37
2025-11-10
Reason
Stephens
Stephens
Price Target
$37
2025-11-10
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Stephens downgraded Five Star Bancorp to Equal Weight from Overweight with a $37 price target. Following what the firm calls a "strong"Q3, it thinks the business model remains intact with go-forward growth prospects "arguably continuing to get better." However, its downgrade is reflective "more of what we view as a pretty fair current relative valuation," telling investors it would prefer to become more constructive on shares again at a better entry point.
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