FOSL Valuation

Fossil Group Inc

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3.391

+0.291(9.387%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

FOSL Relative Valuation

FOSL's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, FOSL is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Fossil Group Inc (FOSL) is now in the Fair zone, suggesting that its current forward PS ratio of 0.19 is considered Fairly compared with the five-year average of -3.82. The fair price of Fossil Group Inc (FOSL) is between to according to relative valuation methord.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

Current Price：3.10

Fair

-1.54

Trailing

Forward

40.90

EV/EBITDA

Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) has a current EV/EBITDA of 40.90. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is -92.97. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -521.45, Undervalued between -521.45 and -307.21, Fairly Valued between 121.26 and -307.21, Overvalued between 121.26 and 335.50, and Strongly Overvalued above 335.50. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 40.90 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

241.90

EV/EBIT

Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) has a current EV/EBIT of 241.90. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is -11.10. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -57.78, Undervalued between -57.78 and -34.44, Fairly Valued between 12.24 and -34.44, Overvalued between 12.24 and 35.58, and Strongly Overvalued above 35.58. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 241.90 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.

0.19

Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) has a current PS of 0.19. The 5-year average PS is 0.16. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -0.20, Undervalued between -0.20 and -0.02, Fairly Valued between 0.34 and -0.02, Overvalued between 0.34 and 0.52, and Strongly Overvalued above 0.52. The current Forward PS of 0.19 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

140.00

P/OCF

Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) has a current P/OCF of 140.00. The 5-year average P/OCF is 0.45. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -14.30, Undervalued between -14.30 and -6.93, Fairly Valued between 7.82 and -6.93, Overvalued between 7.82 and 15.19, and Strongly Overvalued above 15.19. The current Forward P/OCF of 140.00 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.

-22.97

P/FCF

Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) has a current P/FCF of -22.97. The 5-year average P/FCF is -1.43. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -6.97, Undervalued between -6.97 and -4.20, Fairly Valued between 1.33 and -4.20, Overvalued between 1.33 and 4.10, and Strongly Overvalued above 4.10. The current Forward P/FCF of -22.97 falls within the Strongly Undervalued range.

Fossil Group Inc (FOSL) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 1.11. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 0.42 , the current P/B ratio is approximately 166.21% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 0.78, the current P/B ratio is about 42.82% higher. Fossil Group Inc (FOSL) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately -28.58%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of -11.64%, the current FCF yield is approximately 145.62% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of -3.55% , the current FCF yield is about 704.74% lower.

1.11

P/B

Median3y

0.42

Median5y

0.78

-28.58

FCF Yield

Median3y

-11.64

Median5y

-3.55

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for FOSL's competitors is 1.40, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Fossil Group Inc Corp (FOSL) exhibits a P/S ratio of 0.19, which is -86.45% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of -15.23%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

Forward Industries Inc

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of FOSL increased by 174.34% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an decrease in P/E Change from -0.70 to -2.78.

The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed -15.23%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of FOSL in the past 1 year is driven by P/E Change. Which is more unsustainable.

-15.23%

259.99M → 220.40M

Revenue Growth

-105.49%

-14.94 → 0.82

Margin Expansion

295.06%

-0.70 → -2.78

P/E Change

174.34%