Should You Buy First Financial Bancorp (FFBC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
28.800
1 Day change
5.88%
52 Week Range
28.950
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
FFBC is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. The chart is broadly bullish (moving averages aligned upward), but the stock is sitting close to near-term resistance (~27.79) while momentum is cooling (MACD histogram still positive but contracting). Options positioning is slightly defensive (open-interest put/call > 1) and the pattern-based odds you provided point to a weaker 1-month bias (-8.53%). Net: I would HOLD off buying at this exact price; it’s a better “watch” than an “enter now” for an impatient investor.
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Bullish moving-average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) signals an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.105) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI(6) ~60 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought, but not a washed-out entry either).
Levels: Pivot support ~26.79; resistance R1 ~27.79 and R2 ~28.41. At 27.22, price is closer to resistance than to strong support, which reduces the attractiveness of entering “right now.”
Quant/pattern note: The provided pattern study shows +4.46% 1-week bias but -8.53% over 1-month, reinforcing the idea that near-term upside may be capped and a pullback risk is meaningful.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Open interest: Calls 224 vs puts 281 (put/call OI=1.25) indicates more downside hedging/defensive positioning than bullish speculation.
Volume: 0 contracts traded today (put/call volume ratio 0.0), so sentiment from *trading activity* is not strong/clear (illiquid/quiet day).
Volatility: 30D IV ~44.24 with IV percentile ~87.2 suggests options are priced with relatively elevated implied volatility versus its own history—often consistent with caution/uncertainty around the name after earnings or macro-rate sensitivity for regional banks.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Dividend support: Board approved a $0.25/share quarterly dividend (payable Mar 16, 2026), which can support long-term total return appeal.
Full-year improvement: 2025 adjusted net income rose 21.7% to $281.1M ($2.92/share), indicating the longer-term earnings picture improved despite quarter-to-quarter noise.
Asset quality: Nonperforming assets ratio only slightly higher at 0.48% in Q4 2025; overall asset quality described as stable.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Quarterly deceleration: Q4 2025 net income ($62.4M) fell from Q3 2025 ($71.9M), a clear sequential slowdown that can weigh on sentiment.
Options positioning: Put/call open interest ratio above 1.0 (1.25) is mildly bearish/defensive.
Near-term setup: Price is near resistance (27.79) while MACD momentum is contracting; the provided pattern stats indicate negative 1-month odds (-8.53%).
No “priority” trading signals: Neither AI Stock Picker nor SwingMax is triggering a strong buy setup today.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter (Q4 2025): Net income was $62.4M, down vs Q3 2025 ($71.9M), signaling weaker sequential profitability into year-end. Asset quality remained stable with a modest uptick in nonperforming assets ratio to 0.48%.
Recent reported growth snapshot (2025/Q3): Revenue $214.12M (+18.12% YoY), Net Income $71.923M (+37.12% YoY), EPS $0.75 (+36.36% YoY), showing strong year-over-year growth leading into Q4.
Full year 2025: Adjusted net income increased 21.7% to $281.1M ($2.92/share), which is constructive for a long-term view, but the most recent quarter shows some cooling.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating/price target change data was provided, so a precise ‘trend’ in upgrades/downgrades can’t be confirmed here.
Wall Street-style pro view (based on your dataset): improving full-year profitability, stable asset quality, and dividend continuity.
Wall Street-style con view: sequential earnings softness in Q4, and defensive options positioning (put-heavy open interest) suggesting more caution than bullish conviction.
Influential/politician activity: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days; hedge funds and insiders are reported as neutral with no significant recent trends.
Wall Street analysts forecast FFBC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FFBC is 29 USD with a low forecast of 28 USD and a high forecast of 31 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FFBC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FFBC is 29 USD with a low forecast of 28 USD and a high forecast of 31 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 27.200
Low
28
Averages
29
High
31
Current: 27.200
Low
28
Averages
29
High
31
Raymond James
Daniel Tamayo
Outperform
downgrade
$30 -> $28
AI Analysis
2025-10-27
Reason
Raymond James
Daniel Tamayo
Price Target
$30 -> $28
AI Analysis
2025-10-27
downgrade
Outperform
Reason
Raymond James analyst Daniel Tamayo lowered the firm's price target on First Financial Bancorp to $28 from $30 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Core trends were solid in Q3, with stronger fee revenues driving pre-tax pre-provision income upside despite higher expenses, while credit metrics remained healthy though elevated commercial real estate payoffs and seasonal deposit outflows limited balance sheet growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Hovde Group
Outperform
initiated
2025-08-19
Reason
Hovde Group
Price Target
2025-08-19
initiated
Outperform
Reason
Hovde Group initiated coverage of First Financial Bancorp with an Outperform rating.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for FFBC
