Should You Buy Erie Indemnity Co (ERIE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
273.530
1 Day change
0.38%
52 Week Range
456.930
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
ERIE is NOT a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who is impatient. The stock is in a clear short-to-intermediate downtrend (bearish moving averages and weakening MACD) and is only marginally above key support (~272.56). While the business is growing nicely (2025/Q3 EPS +14% YoY), the current tape suggests a better risk/reward comes after the trend stabilizes or reclaims the pivot/resistance zone (~280–288).
Technical Analysis
Price/Trend: Post-market price is 273.53, sitting just above S1 support at 272.563 and below the pivot at 280.206.
Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.737 and negatively expanding, signaling downside momentum is strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6) at 37.18 is weak/near oversold-ish but not showing a clear reversal signal.
Moving Averages: Bearish structure (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), confirming a downtrend.
Levels: Near-term support 272.56 then 267.84; resistance/pivot 280.21 then 287.85.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern model suggests ~-3.06% over the next week, which aligns with the bearish technical setup.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Open interest put-call ratio at 0.26 is call-heavy (bullish positioning), and volume put-call ratio at 0.67 also leans bullish, but absolute volume is tiny (only 5 contracts today), so conviction is limited.
Volatility/Pricing: IV percentile is high (79.2) with 30D IV ~34.77 vs historical vol ~35.34, implying options are not cheap and the market is pricing in elevated uncertainty versus its recent range.
Takeaway: Options positioning is mildly bullish, but thin volume reduces the reliability of the signal.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
2025/Q3 fundamentals were strong (revenue +6.69% YoY, net income +14.40% YoY, EPS +14.23% YoY, margin improvement), supporting a long-term quality narrative.
Next scheduled catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 after hours (Est. EPS ~3.11), which could reset sentiment if results/guide are strong.
No notable insider or hedge-fund trend signals (both neutral), which at least avoids a clear negative supply signal.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical trend is bearish: SMA stack is negative and MACD is deteriorating, increasing the probability of further downside before any durable rebound.
Price is below key pivot/resistance (~280), meaning rallies may face overhead supply.
No news catalysts in the past week to help drive a reversal.
No recent congress trading data or notable influential buying to provide an external confidence boost.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 1,066,739,000 (+6.69% YoY).
Net Income: 182,853,000 (+14.40% YoY).
EPS: 3.13 (+14.23% YoY).
Gross Margin: 19.59 (up 8.77% YoY).
Assessment: Profit and EPS are growing faster than revenue, indicating improving profitability/operating leverage versus last year—fundamentally positive for long-term holders.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating trend or price target change data was provided, so a current Wall Street consensus pros/cons view cannot be confirmed from this dataset. Based on the provided fundamentals alone, the pro case is steady growth and improving profitability; the con case is the current bearish price trend and lack of near-term catalysts.
Wall Street analysts forecast ERIE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ERIE is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Analyst Rating
0
Wall Street analysts forecast ERIE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ERIE is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
