Should I Buy CVI? CVI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy CVR Energy Inc (CVI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

22.280

1 Day change

1.32%

52 Week Range

41.660

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to act immediately. CVI is in a clear downtrend (bearish moving averages), Wall Street is negative (Underweight/Underperform with lowered targets), and recent guidance implies a sharp deterioration (Q4 2025 net loss outlook). With no proprietary buy signals today, the risk/reward is unfavorable for an impatient long-term entry; I would avoid/exit rather than buy now.

Technical Analysis

Trend is bearish: SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 indicates a sustained downtrend. RSI(6)=31.1 is near oversold, which can allow short bounces, but it is not a reliable long-term buy trigger while the broader trend remains down. MACD histogram is slightly positive (0.162) but contracting, suggesting weakening upside momentum rather than a new uptrend. Key levels: immediate resistance near Pivot 23.70 (also above current 21.99), supports at S1 22.17 (just above current) and S2 21.22. Price is below the pivot and near lower supports, consistent with weak sentiment after the recent drop.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest put/call ratio at 1.07 leans slightly defensive (more puts than calls outstanding), consistent with cautious sentiment. However, the put/call volume ratio is only 0.06 (calls dominated today: 102 calls vs 6 puts), which looks like short-term speculative call buying after a selloff rather than confident long-term bullish positioning. Implied volatility is elevated (30d IV ~51, IV percentile 68), meaning options are pricing sizable moves; this typically aligns with uncertainty/risk around operations and upcoming earnings (2026-02-23, est EPS -0.59).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Hedge funds are net buyers (buying amount up ~114% last quarter), which can be a supportive signal if fundamentals stabilize. Potential for a short-term technical bounce given RSI near oversold and price sitting near support zones. If refining operations normalize and fertilizer utilization improves versus the weak outlook, sentiment could recover.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Company projected Q4 2025 net loss of $105M-$125M versus a profit a year ago, which directly pressured the stock and signals weaker near-term fundamentals. Refinining throughput guidance is slightly lower versus last year, and CVR Partners ammonia utilization is guided sharply lower (60%-65% vs 96% YoY), highlighting operational headwinds. Ongoing operational challenges have reduced investor confidence. Technical trend remains bearish, and pattern-based stats provided imply slightly negative-to-flat forward drift (higher probability of small declines next day).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to $1.944B (+6.06% YoY), but profitability deteriorated sharply: net income fell to $374M (-401.61% YoY) and EPS fell to 3.72 (-402.44% YoY). Gross margin also dropped meaningfully (reported -821.11% YoY). In short: top-line held up, but earnings/margins weakened substantially, matching the more negative forward guidance tone for Q4 2025. No recent insider trend support (insiders neutral). No recent congress trading data available; no politician/influential-figure transaction data was provided.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst actions are negative: JPMorgan (2026-01-27) cut PT to $21 from $22 and maintained Underweight; Scotiabank (2026-01-16) cut PT to $25 from $26 and maintained Underperform. Wall Street 'pros' view: the bear case is weakening profitability and operational reliability (and the Q4 loss outlook). The limited bull case is cyclical upside if refining margins/operations rebound, but current rating/target direction suggests pros see more downside risk than upside at this time.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CVI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVI is 28.5 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 35 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

1 Hold

3 Sell

Moderate Sell

Current: 21.990

Low

Averages

28.5

High

Current: 21.990

Low

Averages

28.5

High

JPMorgan

Underweight

downgrade

$22 -> $21

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

New

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$22 -> $21

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

New

downgrade

Underweight

Reason

JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on CVR Energy to $21 from $22 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The analyst updated the company's model post earnings.

Scotiabank

Underperform

downgrade

$26 -> $25

2026-01-16

Reason

Scotiabank

Price Target

$26 -> $25

2026-01-16

downgrade

Underperform

Reason

Scotiabank lowered the firm's price target on CVR Energy to $25 from $26 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for U.S. Integrated Oil, Refining, and Large Cap Exploration & Production, E&P, stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. Scotiabank expects earnings for the quarter to be straightforward due to the absence of major winter weather disruptions. Additionally, looking ahead, the firm expects investors to focus on whether recent market turmoil will cause changes to 2026 guidance and if any E&P companies will adopt cost reduction programs.

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CVI Should I Buy

CVI Should I Buy

Should You Buy CVR Energy Inc (CVI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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