Should You Buy Central Pacific Financial Corp (CPF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
31.840
1 Day change
-0.06%
52 Week Range
34.670
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy now for a beginner long-term investor. CPF is in a constructive uptrend (bullish moving-average stack), just delivered a clear earnings/revenue beat for Q4 2025, raised its dividend, and authorized a meaningful 2026 buyback—an attractive shareholder-return setup that supports multi-quarter upside from here even without waiting for a pullback.
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Bullish moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) indicate an established uptrend. Momentum: RSI(6) ~56.4 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought). MACD histogram is slightly negative (-0.0159) but contracting, which often signals bearish momentum is fading and the trend can resume upward. Levels: Pivot 32.239 is very close to the current price (32.1), implying the stock is sitting on a near-term decision point. Support sits at S1 30.744 (then S2 29.82). Resistance is R1 33.735 (then R2 34.659). Practical read: Price is near the pivot with an overall bullish trend; a push above ~32.24 improves odds of a move toward 33.7–34.7, while a break below ~30.74 would weaken the near-term setup.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment from positioning: Put/Call Open Interest ratio at 0.04 is extremely call-heavy (bullish positioning / very low put demand). Activity/liquidity: Reported option volume is effectively 0 today, so the signal is more about existing positioning than fresh demand. Volatility: 30D IV ~43.5 vs HV ~36.8; IV percentile ~18.8 and IV rank ~14.2 suggest IV is relatively low vs its own history, which typically indicates calmer sentiment and less “fear premium.” Net take: options positioning leans bullish, but thin volume means it’s not a strong real-time sentiment gauge.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
4) Trading trends: no negative insider/hedge-fund pressure indicated (both neutral).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Pattern-based short-horizon risk: similar-pattern projection suggests -3.84% over the next month despite near-term strength (can mean choppiness/pullback risk). 2) Regional bank macro sensitivity: earnings and valuation can be affected by rate changes, credit quality, and deposit competition (no specific negatives cited in the provided data, but this is the core sector risk). 3) Options market thinness (near-zero volume) reduces usefulness of options as a timing/sentiment tool.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter (Q4 2025, reported 2026-01-28): Non-GAAP EPS $0.85 (beat by $0.12), revenue $76.29M (+30.7% YoY). Net income $22.9M; EPS up ~23.5% QoQ; ROA rose to 1.25%, and management authorized a $55M buyback for 2026 while increasing the dividend to $0.29. Prior quarter snapshot (2025/Q3): revenue $71.605M (+12.95% YoY), net income $18.574M (+39.60% YoY), EPS $0.69 (+40.82% YoY). Overall: accelerating top-line growth into Q4 and strong bottom-line expansion, plus capital return actions—supportive for long-term holding.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating/price target change data was provided, so a formal trend in upgrades/downgrades can’t be confirmed here. Based on the quarter and capital actions, the typical Wall Street-style bull case would emphasize accelerating revenue, improved profitability/ROA, and shareholder returns (dividend growth + buyback). The bear case would focus on regional-bank cyclicality (rates/credit/deposit costs) and potential near-term choppiness after earnings. Net: fundamentals in the provided data skew positive, with sector-macro being the main counterweight.
Wall Street analysts forecast CPF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CPF is 35.5 USD with a low forecast of 34 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CPF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CPF is 35.5 USD with a low forecast of 34 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 31.860
Low
34
Averages
35.5
High
37
Current: 31.860
Low
34
Averages
35.5
High
37
Piper Sandler
Overweight
initiated
$35
AI Analysis
2025-08-21
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$35
AI Analysis
2025-08-21
initiated
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler assumed coverage of Central Pacific with an Overweight rating and $35 price target. The Hawaii banks are positioned well to improve profitability by increasing net interest income despite low-single-digit loan and deposit growth outlooks, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Piper's favorite name in the group is Central Pacific due to its discounted relative valuation despite a competitive profitability outlook.
