Should I Buy CNH? CNH 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy CNH Industrial NV (CNH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

10.760

1 Day change

-0.83%

52 Week Range

14.270

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

CNH is not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. The stock is stuck in a low-momentum consolidation near support, fundamentals weakened sharply in the latest quarter, hedge funds have been selling aggressively, and Wall Street has been cutting targets (including a downgrade). Options positioning looks bullish, but it’s not strong enough to outweigh the deteriorating earnings trend and cautious outlook into the next earnings (2026-02-03).

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: CNH is trading at 10.79, slightly below the pivot (10.884) and between near-term support S1 (10.613) and resistance R1 (11.156), which signals a range-bound market rather than a confirmed uptrend. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0253) but “positively contracting,” suggesting upside momentum is fading. RSI(6) at ~53.6 is neutral, confirming no strong trend. Moving Averages: Converging moving averages indicate consolidation/indecision rather than a clean directional move. Bias: Technically this looks like a wait/hold setup (range trading), not a clear long-term accumulation breakout. Near-term pattern statistics provided are slightly negative (higher probability of small declines over day/week/month). Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put-call ratios are extremely low (OI PCR 0.08; Volume PCR 0.39), which is typically bullish/call-skewed positioning. Activity/Volatility: Implied volatility (30D ~32.17) is slightly below historical volatility (~34.13). IV percentile (36) and IV rank (~9.69) suggest options aren’t priced for a major move versus the past year. Today’s options volume (159) is well below the 5D/10D average volume (326/395), so the bullish skew exists but participation is not elevated.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Product/event momentum: Recent news highlights CASE showcasing 40+ machines at CONEXPO, including new/updated models and an EV mini track loader, plus software (myCASEConstruction app). This is mildly positive for brand/product narrative in construction equipment.
Potential cycle inflection narrative (street view): Some analysts still frame ag-cycle improvement as possible into FY26, which could support a longer-term recovery if it materializes.
Options sentiment: Call-heavy positioning (very low put/call ratios) points to bullish trader sentiment.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Fundamental deterioration: The latest reported quarter showed sharp profit compression (major EPS and net income declines), which can cap upside until results stabilize.
Industry/market concerns: JPMorgan’s downgrade cites downside risk in North America large ag equipment sales beyond 2025 as farm profitability compresses.
Hedge fund flow: Hedge funds are selling, with selling amount up ~125% over the last quarter (negative institutional sentiment).
Near-term event risk: Upcoming earnings on 2026-02-03 (pre-market) can re-rate the stock quickly if guidance disappoints again.
No supportive political flow: No recent congress trading data available to suggest influential buying support.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth/profitability trend: Revenue fell to 4.399B (-5.48% YoY). Net income dropped to 80M (-73.86% YoY). EPS fell to 0.06 (-75% YoY). Gross margin declined to 31.92 (-2.53% YoY). Takeaway: This is a clear downshift in profitability and margins, which is unfavorable for a long-term buy-today decision unless there’s strong evidence of a near-term bottom/rebound (not shown in the provided data).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend (recent): Analysts have generally been cutting price targets after Q3 and increasing caution. JPMorgan cut target (12 -> 10.5) and later downgraded to Underweight with a $10 target. Other firms (Citi, Northland, UBS) kept Buy/Outperform ratings but lowered targets (e.g., Citi 16 -> 13; Northland 18 -> 16; UBS 16 -> 15). DA Davidson stayed Neutral but cut target (13 -> 10). Wall Street pros: Some bulls still see a multi-quarter cycle recovery potential into FY26 and keep Buy ratings despite lower targets. Wall Street cons: The most cautious view highlights ag demand risk beyond 2025, tariff headwinds, and weaker profitability—backing the downgrade and clustered target cuts. Net: The direction of changes (targets down + a downgrade) is negative overall, even though not all firms turned bearish.

13 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CNH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CNH is 12.23 USD with a low forecast of 9.5 USD and a high forecast of 16 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

8 Buy

4 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 10.850

Low

9.5

Averages

12.23

High

Current: 10.850

Low

9.5

Averages

12.23

High

JPMorgan

Neutral -> Underweight

downgrade

$10

AI Analysis

2025-11-26

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$10

AI Analysis

2025-11-26

downgrade

Neutral -> Underweight

Reason

JPMorgan downgraded CNH Industrial to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $10, down from $10.50.

JPMorgan

Neutral -> Underweight

downgrade

$10

2025-11-26

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$10

2025-11-26

downgrade

Neutral -> Underweight

Reason

As previously reported, JPMorgan downgraded CNH Industrial (CNH) to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $10, down from $10.50. The firm is updating its model based on the industry outlook for FY26 from Deere (DE) which had reported Q4 results, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan adds that it sees downside for North America large ag equipment sales beyond 2025 as farm profitability compresses from peak levels.

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CNH Should I Buy

CNH Should I Buy

Should You Buy CNH Industrial NV (CNH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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