Technical Analysis:
CNH's stock has shown a clear downward trend in recent trading sessions. The stock closed at $11.73 on February 23rd, showing some recovery from previous lows but still maintaining bearish momentum.
News Impact:
- S&P Global recently revised CNH's outlook to negative, citing larger-than-expected revenue contraction in the agricultural equipment sector
- Revenue decline of 23% in 2024, with further contraction of around 18% expected in 2025
- EBITDA margins forecasted between 9.5-10.0% in 2025, below S&P's 11% target
Price Forecast for Next Week (Feb 24-Mar 1):
Based on technical indicators and recent news:
Target Prices:
- Resistance: $12.00
- Support: $11.20
- Expected trading range: $11.30-$11.80
Price Prediction: $11.45 by end of next week
Recommendation: SELL
Rationale:
- Deteriorating fundamentals with expected revenue contraction
- Negative S&P outlook
- Technical indicators showing continued bearish momentum
- Agricultural sector downturn likely to persist longer than initially expected
- Uncertainties in U.S. market (40% of revenue) due to potential tariffs
Target entry for short positions: Current levels ($11.73)
Stop loss: $12.10
Technical Analysis:
CNH's stock has shown a clear downward trend in recent trading sessions. The stock closed at $11.73 on February 23rd, showing some recovery from previous lows but still maintaining bearish momentum.
News Impact:
- S&P Global recently revised CNH's outlook to negative, citing larger-than-expected revenue contraction in the agricultural equipment sector
- Revenue decline of 23% in 2024, with further contraction of around 18% expected in 2025
- EBITDA margins forecasted between 9.5-10.0% in 2025, below S&P's 11% target
Price Forecast for Next Week (Feb 24-Mar 1):
Based on technical indicators and recent news:
Target Prices:
- Resistance: $12.00
- Support: $11.20
- Expected trading range: $11.30-$11.80
Price Prediction: $11.45 by end of next week
Recommendation: SELL
Rationale:
- Deteriorating fundamentals with expected revenue contraction
- Negative S&P outlook
- Technical indicators showing continued bearish momentum
- Agricultural sector downturn likely to persist longer than initially expected
- Uncertainties in U.S. market (40% of revenue) due to potential tariffs
Target entry for short positions: Current levels ($11.73)
Stop loss: $12.10