Should You Buy Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
93.130
1 Day change
-0.31%
52 Week Range
94.160
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
BUY for a beginner long-term investor right now. CM is in a broadly bullish trend (moving averages stacked positively) and the latest quarter showed solid YoY growth in revenue, earnings, and EPS. While options positioning is cautious-to-bearish short-term and pattern-based odds suggest a weaker 1-month window, the current price (~92.4) is sitting near a defined technical pivot/support area, making it a reasonable immediate entry for an impatient long-term buyer (with the expectation of some near-term chop heading into the late-Feb earnings).
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Bullish overall—SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 indicates an established uptrend.
Momentum: Mixed. MACD histogram is slightly negative (-0.0264) but negatively contracting, which often signals bearish momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI_6 at ~53.5 is neutral (no overbought/oversold pressure).
Key levels: Pivot ~92.04 (price is essentially sitting on it). Immediate resistance R1 ~93.43 then R2 ~94.29. Supports: S1 ~90.64 then S2 ~89.78. A clean hold above ~92 favors a push back toward 93.4–94.3; a break below ~90.6 would weaken the near-term setup.
Probabilistic short-term bias (from similar candlestick patterns): +2.03% next week, but -6.24% next month—suggesting near-term bounce potential with a higher chance of a pullback over the coming month (not unusual ahead of earnings).
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
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Options Data
Neutral
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment read: Mildly bearish/defensive.
- Open Interest Put/Call = 1.05 suggests positioning is slightly more put-heavy than call-heavy (more hedging than bullish leverage).
- Option Volume Put/Call = 1.59 is more clearly bearish on the day (puts traded notably more than calls).
Volatility: Implied vol (30d) ~24.83 vs historical vol ~14.92, with IV percentile 86—options are pricing elevated near-term uncertainty, consistent with traders paying up for protection (notably relevant with earnings on 2026-02-26 pre-market). Overall, options flow looks more like hedging/caution than aggressive upside speculation.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
- Earnings catalyst: QJAN 2026 earnings on 2026-02-26 (pre-market). If credit quality/provisions remain favorable and guidance holds, the stock can re-rate upward.
- Rate environment: Bank of Canada expected to keep rates steady (near-term policy stability can support planning and reduce shock risk).
- Analyst actions have been skewed to price-target raises recently (supportive for medium-term sentiment).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Options market is defensively positioned (Put/Call ratios above 1, high IV percentile), implying traders are preparing for downside or volatility.
- Macro headline risk: slowing growth/global uncertainty (from the news summary) can weigh on bank stocks via credit concerns and loan growth.
- Street concern: net interest margin (NIM) may peak in 2026 (caps the upside to earnings growth if true).
- Pattern-based projection shows a higher chance of weakness over the next month (-6.24%), which aligns with “pre-earnings jitters” risk.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Growth trends were strong YoY: Revenue 7.429B (+14.19%), Net Income 2.058B (+14.21%), EPS 2.20 (+15.79%). This is a clean, consistent growth set across top line and bottom line, supportive of a long-term buy case (fundamentals are improving rather than deteriorating).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Mostly upward price target revisions from late Nov 2025 through Jan 2026.
- Bullish/positive: Scotiabank reiterated Outperform while raising PT (to C$138 from C$133 on 2026-01-09; also raised earlier). TD Securities kept Buy and raised PT (to C$134). National Bank kept Sector Perform but still raised PT (to C$128) citing bullish guidance and achievable growth drivers.
- Mixed/negative: Barclays kept Underweight even while raising PT (to C$126), implying valuation/relative preference concerns despite better results. Raymond James initiated Market Perform with commentary that NIM could peak in 2026 and that earnings growth may depend on continued improvement in provisions for credit losses.
Wall Street pro view: improving fundamentals and guidance/operating leverage are the core positives.
Wall Street con view: upside may be capped if NIM peaks and if the macro slows (credit risk/loan growth).
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available (no signal from that channel).
Wall Street analysts forecast CM stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CM is 93.02 USD with a low forecast of 84.94 USD and a high forecast of 99.34 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CM stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CM is 93.02 USD with a low forecast of 84.94 USD and a high forecast of 99.34 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 93.420
Low
84.94
Averages
93.02
High
99.34
Current: 93.420
Low
84.94
Averages
93.02
High
99.34
Scotiabank
Mike Rizvanovic
Outperform
maintain
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
Reason
Scotiabank
Mike Rizvanovic
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Scotiabank analyst Mike Rizvanovic raised the firm's price target on CIBC to C$138 from C$133 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.
Barclays
Underweight
maintain
$119 -> $126
2025-12-08
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$119 -> $126
2025-12-08
maintain
Underweight
Reason
Barclays raised the firm's price target on CIBC to C$126 from C$119 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The company's fiscal Q4 results again exceeded consensus, driven by better than expected fee income, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CM
