Should You Buy Cigna Group (CI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
271.270
1 Day change
-0.41%
52 Week Range
350.000
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who is impatient. CI is in a clear short-term downtrend (bearish moving averages and weakening MACD), and the near-term news flow around Medicare Advantage reimbursement pressure and heightened political scrutiny is negative. While fundamentals from the latest reported quarter look strong and many analysts still rate it favorably, the current setup suggests a meaningful chance of further downside into/around the 2026-02-05 earnings event. For this profile, the better decision is to hold off rather than buy immediately.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bearish/weakening. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating the stock is trading in a downtrend across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes. MACD histogram is negative (-0.558) and negatively expanding, which signals downside momentum is building rather than stabilizing. RSI(6) at ~39.5 is below midline and leaning toward oversold, but not at a level that reliably signals a reversal yet. Key levels: Pivot 274.43 (price 271.95 is below pivot, bearish). Nearby support is S1 268.87 then S2 265.43; if those break, sellers likely remain in control. Resistance levels are R1 279.99 and R2 283.43, which would need to be reclaimed to improve trend.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning is mildly bullish/less defensive: open interest put/call at 0.46 suggests more call positioning than puts, and volume put/call at 0.51 also leans call-heavy on the day. However, volume is not elevated versus the recent 5D/10D averages (today 1,093 vs 5D avg ~1,570 and 10D avg ~2,338), so the signal is not a strong, high-conviction sentiment impulse. IV (30D ~31.2) is moderate with IV percentile ~56.8, implying the market is pricing some event/uncertainty (earnings upcoming) but not extreme panic.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
2
Positive Catalysts
1) Strong last reported quarter growth (2025/Q3): revenue +9.5% YoY, net income +152.8% YoY, EPS +166.9% YoY (shows earnings power when conditions cooperate). 2) Analyst stance remains broadly constructive (multiple Buy/Overweight/Outperform reiterations and price target raises in early January). 3) If utilization trends truly decelerate (per Mizuho’s commentary), that can improve medical cost trends and margins over time. 4) Any relief/clarity on policy and rate-related overhangs could trigger a rebound given the sector selloff sensitivity.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Event-driven headwind: CMS proposed ~0.09% average Medicare payment increase for 2027, well below many expectations, which has driven negative sentiment across managed care and is explicitly flagged as likely to cause a materially negative stock reaction with limited quick recovery. 2) Sector contagion risk: UnitedHealth’s sharp decline on weaker earnings/guidance can pressure peers via sentiment and multiple compression. 3) Political/regulatory overhang: major insurer CEOs set to testify before Congress on affordability—headline risk and potential for policy actions. 4) Technical downside momentum is currently strengthening (bearish MA stack + expanding negative MACD), increasing the risk of buying into a falling trend. 5) Congress trading in the last 90 days shows only sales (0 buys, 4 sells), which is a negative sentiment datapoint from influential figures.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to $69.748B (+9.50% YoY), net income increased to $1.868B (+152.77% YoY), and EPS increased to 7.02 (+166.92% YoY), indicating strong bottom-line acceleration. The main yellow flag is profitability mix: gross margin declined to 8.52 (down ~11.98% YoY), suggesting margin pressure in parts of the business even as earnings surged. Next catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-05 (pre-market), which can materially reset expectations.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst trend is mixed but overall still tilts positive. Early January 2026 saw multiple price target increases and bullish stances: Mizuho raised PT to $325 (Outperform), Truist to $320 (Buy), Barclays to $305 (Overweight), and Bernstein raised PT to $307 (Market Perform). Late January brought a notable sentiment hit from Cantor Fitzgerald highlighting the CMS 2027 rate proposal as materially negative for the group with limited quick recovery. Prior to that (Nov 2025), several firms cut targets (e.g., Bernstein to $294, Wells Fargo to $300, Goldman to $330) citing PBM/Evernorth margin pressure and lower visibility.
Wall Street pros vs cons view: Pros focus on margin recovery potential into 2026, conservative pricing/utilization normalization, and CI’s earnings power. Cons emphasize regulatory/political rate risk (Medicare Advantage), PBM margin pressure/visibility issues, and near-term catalyst risk around earnings and policy headlines.
Wall Street analysts forecast CI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CI is 335.63 USD with a low forecast of 300 USD and a high forecast of 378 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CI is 335.63 USD with a low forecast of 300 USD and a high forecast of 378 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 272.380
Low
300
Averages
335.63
High
378
Current: 272.380
Low
300
Averages
335.63
High
378
Cantor Fitzgerald
Cantor Fitzgerald
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald
Cantor Fitzgerald
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
downgrade
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald writes that Healthcare Insurance names should see a materially negative stock reaction after the announcement from CMS that the 2027 Medicare Advantage Advance Notice Rate would be around 0.09% on average vs. the investor Base Case expectations of 5%. It is unlikely that stocks in the space will see a quick recovery, as the rates indicate the entrance of a more political influence than seen in past rates, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Publicly traded companies in the space include CVS Health (CVS), Centene (CNC), Cigna (CI), Elevance Health (ELV), Humana (HUM), Molina Healthcare (MOH) and UnitedHealth (UNH).
Mizuho
Outperform
maintain
$307 -> $325
2026-01-09
Reason
Mizuho
Price Target
$307 -> $325
2026-01-09
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Cigna to $325 from $307 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated targets in the healthcare facilities and managed care group as part of a Q4 preview. Mizuho's physician survey indicated healthcare utilization growth trends decelerated sequentially despite easier year-over-year comps, which could indicate trend is peaking, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CI
