Should You Buy Chord Energy Corp (CHRD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
99.220
1 Day change
1.08%
52 Week Range
117.790
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
CHRD is not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who is impatient and doesn’t want to wait for a better entry. The stock is trading near resistance (~98–100) with short-term overbought signals, recent financial results show weakening YoY performance, Congress activity is net selling, and Wall Street has been cutting targets due to a pressured oil macro. If you already own it, holding is reasonable; if you don’t, I would not initiate a new long-term position at today’s price.
Technical Analysis
Trend/levels: Price $98.17 is sitting right at R1 ($98.21) and below R2 ($100.23), after moving up toward near-term resistance. Pivot support is ~$94.95; a break below that shifts the bias bearish toward S1 ~$91.68.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.69) and expanding, which supports bullish momentum, but RSI(6) at ~75 is effectively short-term overbought and often precedes pullbacks when price is at resistance.
Moving averages: Converging moving averages suggests the trend is not strongly established; this often leads to range behavior and whipsaws.
Quant pattern read: Similar-pattern analysis suggests a negative skew over the next month (-6.37%), reinforcing that the current level is not an attractive impatient entry.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
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Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Options positioning is modestly bullish. Open Interest Put/Call at 0.82 implies slightly more calls than puts outstanding, and the Volume Put/Call at 0.24 shows today’s trading skewed heavily toward calls.
Activity: Today’s option volume is elevated versus its 30-day average (about 281%), suggesting increased attention/speculation.
Volatility: 30D IV (~38.65) is close to historical vol (~37.14) with low IV percentile (~25) / IV rank (~15), indicating options are not particularly expensive vs the past year—more consistent with neutral-to-calm sentiment rather than fear hedging.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
- Options flow is call-heavy (bullish near-term sentiment).
- Company is generally viewed as capital-disciplined/low-reinvestment by analysts; this can support shareholder returns during weaker commodity tapes.
- Potential strategic catalyst: analyst commentary (William Blair) suggests the market may be underpricing the company and expects a potential large-scale Bakken acquisition.
- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-23 (after hours) could reset expectations if cash flow/returns surprise positively.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
while short-term RSI is overbought.
Financial Performance
Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth trends were negative YoY: Revenue $1.312B (-9.54% YoY), Net Income $129.36M (-42.39% YoY), EPS $2.26 (-37.05% YoY), Gross Margin 20.43% (-28.19% YoY). This indicates profitability compressed faster than revenue, consistent with commodity/realization pressure and/or cost dynamics. Overall, the latest quarter points to a weakening earnings profile into the next report (QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-23).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets have been repeatedly lowered in January (Wells Fargo 113→109, Morgan Stanley 123→114, Jefferies 101→99, Scotiabank 120→114, UBS 123→119, Mizuho 150→148) and Pickering downgraded to Neutral. Despite cuts, several firms still carry positive stances (e.g., UBS Buy, Wells Overweight, Mizuho Outperform, William Blair Outperform initiation).
Wall Street pros: capital discipline, low breakeven/FCF potential, balance sheet strength, and perceived upside if longer-term fundamentals improve.
Wall Street cons: near-term oil oversupply/price pressure and softer cash flow/realizations, which are driving the target reductions and limiting enthusiasm today.
Wall Street analysts forecast CHRD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CHRD is 129.27 USD with a low forecast of 105 USD and a high forecast of 165 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CHRD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CHRD is 129.27 USD with a low forecast of 105 USD and a high forecast of 165 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 98.160
Low
105
Averages
129.27
High
165
Current: 98.160
Low
105
Averages
129.27
High
165
Wells Fargo
Overweight
downgrade
$113 -> $109
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$113 -> $109
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Chord Energy to $109 from $113 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The oil macro remains pressured, with downside-skewed fundamentals as rising OPEC supply and strong non-OPEC growth point to a near-term surplus and continued price pressure, Wells notes. Amid a softer macro, the firm favors low-reinvestment, capital-disciplined frameworks, with 2026 plans broadly stable across the group.
Morgan Stanley
Devin McDermott
Equal Weight
downgrade
$123 -> $114
2026-01-23
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Devin McDermott
Price Target
$123 -> $114
2026-01-23
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott lowered the firm's price target on Chord Energy to $114 from $123 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm marked its 2026-27 oil price deck for strip as of January 7 in conjunction with its Q4 preview for the E&Ps, oil majors and Canadian producers. The firm expects "fairly clean" Q4 operational updates but lighter cash flow from price realizations, the analyst tells investors in the preview.
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