Should You Buy Church & Dwight Co Inc (CHD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
91.960
1 Day change
0.52%
52 Week Range
116.460
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy now for a beginner, long-term investor. CHD is a defensive consumer-staples name that has already reset (down ~21% over the last year per analyst commentary), has multiple recent upgrades to Buy/Outperform with price targets mostly above the current ~$91.74, and shows strong hedge-fund accumulation. While options positioning looks bearish/defensive into the upcoming earnings (Jan 30, 2026), the current setup still offers an attractive long-term entry for an investor who doesn’t want to wait for a “perfect” dip.
Technical Analysis
Price is sitting near the pivot (~91.25) with nearby resistance at ~93.64 and support at ~88.87.
- Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.331) but contracting, implying the up-move is losing steam rather than accelerating.
- RSI(6) ~61.7: mildly bullish/neutral (not overbought).
- Moving averages: converging, consistent with consolidation after a pullback rather than a strong trend.
Interpretation: CHD looks like a stabilizing/consolidation chart with modest bullish bias above ~91, but near-term upside may be capped until it clears ~93.6; a break below ~88.9 would be a technical deterioration.
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Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment is cautious-to-bearish near term:
- Put open interest exceeds calls (OI P/C 1.46), suggesting heavier downside hedging/positioning.
- Put volume is much higher than call volume (Volume P/C 3.07), reinforcing defensive sentiment.
- Implied vol (30D) ~27.64 vs historical ~27.09 is slightly elevated; IV percentile ~70.8 suggests options are relatively expensive versus much of the past year, consistent with pre-earnings positioning.
Takeaway: options flows lean protective/bearish into the next catalyst (earnings), even if longer-term investors may view this as hedging rather than a fundamental breakdown call.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
- Upcoming earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-01-30 (pre-market): a solid print/guidance can unlock a move through ~93.6 resistance.
- Strategic clarity from the VMS divestiture (per Deutsche Bank note): removal of a sales-growth drag could improve the 2026 growth narrative.
- Hedge funds are buying aggressively (reported buying amount up ~2536% QoQ), a supportive positioning signal.
- Street view has improved after the 2025 pullback: multiple upgrades (Jefferies to Buy; Raymond James to Outperform; Citi to Neutral from Sell).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Near-term sentiment in options is defensive (put-heavy), implying traders are positioning for downside risk around earnings.
- Macro/category headwinds: TD Cowen expects a challenging 2026 for large-cap staples with muted pricing and weak volume trends.
- Technical upside may be constrained near ~93.6 unless earnings/guidance provides a clear catalyst.
- No supportive near-term news flow in the last week (no fresh positive catalyst reported).
- Political/influential trading: no recent congress trading data available (no signal from that channel).
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $1.586B, +4.96% YoY (steady top-line growth).
- Gross margin: 45.06%, down ~0.35 YoY (slight pressure).
- Net income: $182.2M, down -342.61% YoY; EPS: 0.75, down -341.94% YoY.
Read-through: sales growth is positive, but profitability/EPS showed a sharp YoY drop in the snapshot data (suggesting meaningful one-time impacts and/or cost/other non-operating pressures). The next earnings report (QDEC 2025 on 2026-01-30) is important for confirming normalized earnings power and 2026 trajectory.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: ratings have improved while some price targets were trimmed.
- Upgrades: Jefferies upgraded to Buy (PT $102); Raymond James upgraded to Outperform (PT $100); Citi upgraded to Neutral (PT $87, from $85).
- Target cuts but ratings held: Wells Fargo cut PT to $92 (kept Overweight); TD Cowen cut PT to $97 (kept Hold); Deutsche Bank slightly cut PT to $100 (kept Buy); Argus cut PT to $102 (kept Buy).
- Bearish outlier: Barclays remains Underweight with PT $82.
Wall Street pros view (pros/cons):
Pros: improved risk/reward after pullback, historically more resilient organic sales/earnings profile, portfolio positioning that may hold up better in a tougher staples tape, and potential 2026 setup improvement post-divestiture.
Cons: staples category outlook is muted (pricing/volume), and some firms are reducing targets into 2026, reflecting tempered expectations.
Overall: Street tone is leaning constructive (multiple Buys/Outperform) with a few cautious holds/one underweight, implying modest-to-good upside from ~$91.74 if execution and guidance stabilize.
Wall Street analysts forecast CHD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CHD is 98.71 USD with a low forecast of 82 USD and a high forecast of 114 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CHD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CHD is 98.71 USD with a low forecast of 82 USD and a high forecast of 114 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 91.480
Low
82
Averages
98.71
High
114
Current: 91.480
Low
82
Averages
98.71
High
114
TD Cowen
Hold
downgrade
$100 -> $97
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
Reason
TD Cowen
Price Target
$100 -> $97
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
downgrade
Hold
Reason
TD Cowen lowered the firm's price target on Church & Dwight to $97 from $100 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm adjusted price targets in consumer staples as part of a 2026 outlook. TD expects a "challenging" year for large-cap consumer staples with volume growth unlikely to improve materially from the negative 0.9% in 2025 and pricing "muted."
Wells Fargo
Overweight
downgrade
$100 -> $92
2026-01-05
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$100 -> $92
2026-01-05
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Church & Dwight to $92 from $100 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. As Wells aggregates models across Beverage/Food/HPC, the firm is revising its price targets into 2026.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CHD
