Should You Buy Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
12.330
1 Day change
-0.40%
52 Week Range
18.130
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor. CGBD is still in a bearish technical trend (downtrend structure and weakening momentum), while Wall Street is broadly Neutral/Market Perform with recently reduced price targets. With no proprietary buy signals today and earnings approaching (potential volatility catalyst), the risk/reward is not attractive enough to justify buying immediately; holding off is the better call.
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), which signals an established downtrend.
Momentum indicators: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0289) and expanding lower, suggesting downside momentum is still building. RSI(6) ~39.5 is near the lower end of neutral (not deeply oversold), so there isn’t a strong “snap-back” buy signal yet.
Key levels: Price 12.47 is sitting just above support S1 (12.443) and above S2 (12.289). Immediate resistance is the pivot (12.691) then R1 (12.939). A cleaner technical “buy” setup would be reclaiming/holding above ~12.69–12.94 with momentum improving.
Pattern-based near-term odds: Similar-pattern stats suggest modest upside probabilities (next month +5.13% scenario), but that conflicts with the currently bearish MA/MACD setup—so timing remains unfavorable.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Open-interest put/call ratio at 0.07 is extremely call-heavy (structurally bullish positioning), but today’s option volume put/call ratio is 4.0 (puts dominating daily flow). That mix often implies longer-dated positioning is optimistic while very near-term traders are hedging or leaning defensive.
Volatility: IV is low (30D IV ~16.77) and IV percentile ~1.2 (very low vs history). Low IV can make option premiums cheaper, but it also signals the options market is not pricing in large moves right now—despite earnings coming soon.
Liquidity/flow notes: Today’s option volume is elevated vs its 30D average (6.65x), so sentiment signals today are more meaningful than on a “quiet” options day.
Technical Summary
Sell
11
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
1) Earnings catalyst ahead: Q4 and FY2025 results scheduled for 2026-02-26 after hours, with a webcast call on 2026-02-25/02-26 timeframe—could reset expectations if credit performance/income stability is strong.
2) Latest reported operating growth: 2025/Q3 showed strong YoY revenue (+25.41%) and net income (+27.58%), supportive for longer-term fundamentals.
3) Industry view from coverage initiation: Citizens JMP framed the sector selloff as potentially creating a longer-term buying opportunity (though still rated Market Perform for CGBD specifically).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Bearish technical trend: Downtrend structure (MA stack) and deteriorating MACD momentum reduce the probability of a clean near-term breakout.
2) Analyst stance remains cautious: Multiple Neutral/Market Perform ratings with price targets nudged down (signals limited conviction).
3) Event risk: Upcoming earnings can move BDCs quickly if net investment income, credit marks, or portfolio quality disappoint; current price is close to support, so a miss could break support levels.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Growth: Revenue rose to 63,573,000 (+25.41% YoY) and net income rose to 23,903,000 (+27.58% YoY), showing solid growth trends.
Earnings per share: EPS was 0.33 (flat YoY, +0.00%), indicating that despite higher revenue/net income, per-share earnings growth was not improving year-over-year.
Margins: Gross margin ~98.78% (slightly higher YoY), consistent with the structure of lending/investment income businesses.
Overall read: Fundamentals look stable-to-improving on revenue and net income, but the lack of EPS growth suggests per-share profitability momentum is not accelerating yet.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Mostly Neutral/Market Perform.
- 2025-12-08: Citizens JMP initiated at Market Perform, noting sector selloff may be a longer-term opportunity but framing CGBD as balanced risk/reward.
- 2025-11-11: B. Riley kept Neutral, cut PT to $13 from $14.
- 2025-11-06: JPMorgan kept Neutral, cut PT to $12 from $12.50.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
Pros: Sector selloff viewed as potentially overdone; some see longer-term opportunity; company posted strong YoY revenue and net income growth.
Cons: Ratings remain Neutral/Market Perform; price targets have been trimmed; overall message is “balanced” rather than “compelling,” aligning with a HOLD rather than an immediate BUY.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders show Neutral trend with no significant recent activity.
Wall Street analysts forecast CGBD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CGBD is 13.2 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 15 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CGBD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CGBD is 13.2 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 15 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 12.380
Low
12
Averages
13.2
High
15
Current: 12.380
Low
12
Averages
13.2
High
15
Citizens JMP
Brian McKenna
Market Perform
initiated
AI Analysis
2025-12-08
Reason
Citizens JMP
Brian McKenna
Price Target
AI Analysis
2025-12-08
initiated
Market Perform
Reason
Citizens JMP analyst Brian McKenna initiated coverage of Carlyle Secured Lending with a Market Perform rating. The firm expanded its coverage of business development companies. It thinks the recent underperformance across the industry is largely unwarranted. The selloffs have created "another compelling longer-term buying opportunity in these stocks," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citizens sees a balanced risk/reward for Carlyle Secured.
B. Riley
Neutral
downgrade
$14 -> $13
2025-11-11
Reason
B. Riley
Price Target
$14 -> $13
2025-11-11
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
B. Riley lowered the firm's price target on Carlyle Secured Lending to $13 from $14 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q3 report as solid but sees a balanced risk/reward at the current share levels.
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