CGBD Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how CGBD performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, CGBD sees a +0.33% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.11% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -1.09%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
CGBD Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
50.69M
-20.02%
1.11%
Gross Margin
--
--
--
Operating Margin
71.99%
-5.36%
2.07%
Net Margin
38.69%
-18.24%
3.48%
EPS
0.33
-36.54%
3.13%
No Data Available
CGBD Earnings Analysis
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Common Stock Corporation (CGBD.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Net Investment Income Performance: 1. Strong Net Investment Income: CGBD generated net investment income of $24 million, or $0.47 per share, for Q3 2024, with adjusted net investment income reaching $25 million, or $0.49 per share, reflecting a robust performance despite a lower average portfolio balance.
Dividend Declaration Announcement: 2. Attractive Dividend Declaration: The Board declared a total fourth quarter dividend of $0.45 per share, consisting of a $0.40 base dividend and a $0.05 supplemental dividend, representing an attractive yield of nearly 11% based on the recent share price.
Rising Deal Activity: 3. Increased Originations: CGBD's originations in Q3 2024 were significantly up year-over-year, indicating a strengthening deal activity and a growing pipeline as M&A activity is expected to continue to rise into 2025.
Credit Quality Stability: 4. Stable Credit Performance: The portfolio maintained a low non-accrual rate of only 0.6% of total investments at fair value, demonstrating strong credit quality and stability across the portfolio.
Diversified Financing Strategies: 5. Successful Financing Initiatives: CGBD issued $300 million of unsecured notes at a fixed rate of 6.75%, which diversifies financing sources and supports new investment opportunities, while maintaining a low leverage ratio of about 0.9 times.
Negative
Investment Income Decline: 1. Decline in Total Investment Income: Total investment income for Q3 2024 was $56 million, a decrease from the prior quarter due to a lower average portfolio balance and lower weighted average yields.
Investment Losses Reported: 2. Net Loss on Investments: The company reported a total aggregate realized and unrealized net loss of approximately $5 million for the quarter, primarily due to a decline in value of a position in their MMCF JV.
Earnings Contraction Forecast: 3. Lower Earnings Outlook: The company anticipates a contraction in earnings in the coming quarters due to expected lower base rates, tighter new issue spreads, and portfolio repricing activity, which may affect their historical high earnings.
Net Asset Value Stagnation: 4. Flat Net Asset Value: The net asset value as of September 30 was relatively flat at $16.85 per share, showing a modest decline from the previous quarter, indicating stagnation in asset value growth.
Dividend Coverage Challenges: 5. High Dividend Coverage but Cumulative Shortfall: While the base dividend coverage was 118%, the company has a cumulative shortfall of $1.40 per share, suggesting potential challenges in maintaining dividend levels in the future.
CGBD FAQs
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CGBD Earning Call Sentiment
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
CGBD.O
-1.41%Positive
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. While the merger and dividend coverage are positive, the contraction in earnings due to economic factors, a $5 million net loss, and unclear management responses in the Q&A section pose concerns. The stable credit quality and expected M&A activity are positive, but the decline in NAV and valuation risks balance these out. Overall, the sentiment is neutral, with no strong catalysts for significant stock price movement in the short term.
