Should You Buy Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc (CFR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
138.770
1 Day change
2.65%
52 Week Range
145.530
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy now for a long-term position. CFR is in a longer-term uptrend (bullish moving-average stack) and fundamentals are improving (strong YoY growth in the latest reported quarter, plus upward EPS/revenue estimate revisions into the upcoming earnings). While near-term momentum is soft (bearish MACD) and options positioning is somewhat defensive, the setup favors long-term upside with a clear catalyst (Q4 earnings) and a recent meaningful analyst upgrade with a $150 target.
Technical Analysis
Trend/price action: Longer-term trend remains constructive with bullish moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but near-term momentum has weakened.
Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.417 and negatively expanding, indicating downside momentum is building in the short run. RSI_6 at 45.7 is neutral, suggesting no oversold bounce signal yet.
Key levels: Price 136.17 is below the pivot (139.20) and sitting just above S1 (135.13). If it holds above ~135, the risk/reward improves for buyers; reclaiming 139–143 would confirm renewed upside. Resistance levels to watch are R1 143.28 and R2 145.79.
Quant/Pattern odds provided: Similar-pattern analysis implies a modest bearish drift over the next week/month (50% chance to -3.04% next week and -5.58% next month), reinforcing that this is a long-term buy rather than a short-term momentum chase.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment read: Open interest put/call ratio at 1.52 suggests more puts than calls outstanding (cautious/defensive positioning). However, the option volume put/call ratio is 0.0 because call volume is 0 today while puts traded (13 contracts), so the day’s volume is not balanced and is too thin to treat as a strong signal.
Volatility: 30D implied volatility (32) is above historical volatility (27.46) and IV percentile is elevated (82.4), consistent with options pricing in an event (earnings) and heightened uncertainty. Net: options market is pricing higher near-term movement and leaning defensive via open interest.
Technical Summary
Sell
0
Buy
13
Positive Catalysts
- Upcoming Q4 earnings (2026-01-29 pre-market) with consensus pointing to EPS growth (~12.4% YoY) and revenue growth (~3.9% YoY).
- Strong estimate revision trend into earnings: EPS estimates over the last 3 months show 10 upward vs 2 downward revisions; revenue has 8 upward revisions and 0 downward.
- Beat consistency: exceeded EPS estimates 100% of the time and revenue 75% over the past year (supports confidence into the print).
- Analyst catalyst: Keefe Bruyette upgrade to Outperform with $150 target, citing improving loan growth (projected peer-leading) and underestimated branch expansion accretion/capital deployment.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Near-term technical momentum is negative (MACD bearish/expanding below zero), which can pressure the stock around/after earnings.
- Options positioning shows defensive bias in open interest (put-heavy), implying some hedging or caution.
- Street is not fully aligned: Citi still has a Sell rating (even after raising its target previously), and Barclays is only Equal Weight with a $140 target, indicating mixed conviction and potential valuation/expectation debate.
- Pattern-based forward return snapshot provided is biased negative over the next week/month, which may conflict with an impatient short-term mindset.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $538.18M, +9.55% YoY (solid top-line acceleration for a bank of this size).
- Net Income: $170.98M, +19.35% YoY.
- EPS: $2.67, +19.20% YoY.
Growth read: Profit and EPS are outgrowing revenue, suggesting improving operating leverage and/or margin/credit performance during the quarter. Combined with the upward estimate revisions into Q4, the growth trend is currently supportive for long-term holders.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Mixed but improving.
- 2026-01-04: Keefe Bruyette upgraded to Outperform (PT $150 unchanged), highlighting multi-year upside catalysts (loan growth, capital deployment, branch strategy accretion).
- 2025-12-19: Barclays maintained Equal Weight and trimmed PT to $140 (slightly more cautious into 2026 outlook).
- 2025-10-31: Citi maintained Sell (PT raised modestly to $114) despite a modest Q3 beat.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
Pros: A notable upgrade with a higher target ($150) argues for upside as growth/capital deployment improves and the Street may be underestimating longer-term earnings power.
Cons: At least one key bear (Citi Sell) remains, and the more neutral stance from Barclays suggests upside may be more gradual and dependent on execution/earnings delivery.
Influential/Politician trading check: No recent congress trading data available; no notable politician activity indicated in the provided data.
Wall Street analysts forecast CFR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CFR is 139.78 USD with a low forecast of 114 USD and a high forecast of 154 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CFR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CFR is 139.78 USD with a low forecast of 114 USD and a high forecast of 154 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 135.190
Low
114
Averages
139.78
High
154
Current: 135.190
Low
114
Averages
139.78
High
154
Keefe Bruyette
Catherine Mealor
Market Perform -> Outperform
upgrade
$150
AI Analysis
2026-01-04
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Catherine Mealor
Price Target
$150
AI Analysis
2026-01-04
upgrade
Market Perform -> Outperform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette analyst Catherine Mealor upgraded Cullen/Frost to Outperform from Market Perform with an unchanged price target of $150. The firm cites the stock's underperformance in 2025 and catalysts for upside to 2027 earnings estimates for the upgrade. Cullen/Frost's organic loan growth will improve and be the highest of its peer group at 8% in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Keefe also expects the company to be more active in capital deployment and believes the Street is underestimating accretion from its branch expansion strategy.
Barclays
Equal Weight
downgrade
$145 -> $140
2025-12-19
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$145 -> $140
2025-12-19
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Cullen/Frost to $140 from $145 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the mid-cap bank group as part of its 2026 outlook. More differentiation in loan growth and book value expansion is expected within the group next year, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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