Should I Buy CBSH? CBSH 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Commerce Bancshares Inc (CBSH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

52.640

1 Day change

-0.44%

52 Week Range

65.590

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

CBSH is NOT a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who wants to deploy capital immediately. The stock is in a clear short-to-intermediate downtrend (bearish moving averages and weakening MACD), insiders have been selling aggressively recently, and Wall Street remains largely neutral with limited identified upside catalysts. While the latest quarter was fundamentally solid (beats and YoY growth), the current tape and sentiment signals do not support an impatient “buy now” decision. **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend is bearish. Moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating a sustained downtrend. MACD histogram is -0.246 and negatively expanding, suggesting downside momentum is strengthening rather than stabilizing. RSI(6) at ~37.4 is not deeply oversold, so there isn’t a strong mean-reversion “forced bounce” signal yet. Key levels: Immediate support S1 ~52.08 (very close to current ~52.49). If that breaks, next support S2 ~51.03. Overhead resistance starts at pivot ~53.78, then R1 ~55.47. Near-term probabilities from similar candlestick setups are mildly positive (1M +4.93%), but the current trend signals still favor caution until price reclaims/holds above ~53.8 and momentum stabilizes.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options positioning is skewed bullish/less defensive (open interest put/call 0.43; volume put/call 0.0), but today’s volume is extremely low (only 1 contract), so sentiment inference is weak. Implied volatility is elevated (30D IV ~90.86) versus historical volatility (~33.35), which can imply uncertainty/event premium; however IV percentile is low (9.21), suggesting IV isn’t extreme relative to its own recent history. Net: slight bullish lean from OI, but not a high-confidence signal due to thin trading.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Earnings delivery: Q4 results came in better than expectations (EPS and revenue beats in the news summary).
Fundamental growth: 2025/Q4 showed YoY revenue, net income, and EPS growth.
M&A integration tailwind: Finemark acquisition closed and is expected to be accretive (per Piper Sandler), potentially strengthening wealth management and market footprint.
Broader 2026 tailwind possibility: TD Cowen notes repricing tailwinds and a potentially more dovish Fed backdrop could support bank stocks.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Downtrend technicals: bearish MA stack + worsening MACD indicate the market is still selling rallies.
Insider selling: insiders are selling, with selling amount up ~958.66% over the last month—often a negative near-term signal.
Limited upside catalysts per analysts: Piper Sandler explicitly cites limited visibility for catalysts to expand multiples or drive upside.
Options signal quality is poor: bullish put/call ratios exist, but volume is near-zero, reducing reliability.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue grew to ~$400.65M (+7.28% YoY). Net income increased to ~$140.66M (+4.32% YoY). EPS rose to $1.02 (+6.25% YoY). Overall, this is steady, positive growth consistent with a high-quality regional bank profile, but not the kind of acceleration that typically flips a stock out of a bearish trend immediately.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst stance is predominantly Neutral/Hold with slightly mixed price target moves. - Piper Sandler (2026-01-26): Neutral; PT cut to $62 from $64, citing limited catalysts and premium multiple concerns. - Piper Sandler (2026-01-09): Neutral; PT raised to $64 from $60 on Finemark accretion and strategic fit. - TD Cowen (2026-01-07): Hold; PT lowered to $55 from $61 in a broader bank target reset. Wall Street pros: accretive acquisition, strong platform/wealth management, potential 2026 bank-tailwind backdrop. Cons: catalyst visibility remains low, valuation/multiple expansion not clearly supported, and targets imply only moderate upside from ~$52.5. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available. Hedge funds are Neutral with no significant trend over the last quarter.

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CBSH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CBSH is 61.01 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 67 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

7 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 52.870

Low

Averages

61.01

High

Current: 52.870

Low

Averages

61.01

High

Piper Sandler

Nathan Race

Neutral

downgrade

$64 -> $62

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

New

Reason

Piper Sandler

Nathan Race

Price Target

$64 -> $62

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

New

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

Piper Sandler analyst Nathan Race lowered the firm's price target on Commerce Bancshares to $62 from $64 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. While shares' 24% underperformance vs. the KRE since year-end 2024 has resulted in a relatively attractive valuation compared to the past several years, the firm stays on the sidelines given limited visibility of catalysts to drive upside to its estimates and materially expand Commerce's current premium multiples.

Piper Sandler

Neutral

maintain

$60 -> $64

2026-01-09

Reason

Piper Sandler

Price Target

$60 -> $64

2026-01-09

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Commerce Bancshares to $64 from $60 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following the recent closing of the company's acquisition for Finemark National Bank & Trust. The firm's 2026 operating EPS moves to $4.25 from $4.00 to reflect anticipated Finemark-related accretion. Piper believes Finemark is highly complementary and additive to Commerce Bancshares' enviable wealth management platform scale and provides attractive entry to various attractive markets that could potentially enhance its organic loan growth tendency.

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CBSH Should I Buy

CBSH Should I Buy

Should You Buy Commerce Bancshares Inc (CBSH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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