Technical Analysis:
Based on recent price action, CACC shows a bearish trend with significant resistance at $492.39 level. The stock has crossed above analyst target prices, suggesting potential overvaluation at current levels.
Fundamental Analysis:
- Recent Q4 2024 performance shows mixed results with record-high loan portfolio of $8.9 billion
- Collections improved to $1.3 billion, but growth slowed with decreased financed contracts
- Active dealer count declined slightly to 10,149 in Q4 2024
Analyst Sentiment:
TD Cowen maintains Sell rating with $450 price target, citing:
- Weaknesses in loan originations
- Declining net cash flow rates over past seven quarters
- Underperformance of 2022 vintage
- Potential risks in 2023 and 2024 vintages
Price Prediction for Next Week:
Based on technical and fundamental factors:
- Resistance: $492.39
- Support: $450.00
- Target Price: $465-470
Recommendation: SELL
Rationale:
- Stock trading above analyst consensus target of $476.60
- Fundamental weaknesses in loan originations and cash flows
- Technical indicators showing overbought conditions
- Multiple analyst concerns about growth trajectory and vintage performance
Expected price movement: 4-5% downside potential in the next trading week, with stock likely to test support levels around $450.
Technical Analysis:
Based on recent price action, CACC shows a bearish trend with significant resistance at $492.39 level. The stock has crossed above analyst target prices, suggesting potential overvaluation at current levels.
Fundamental Analysis:
- Recent Q4 2024 performance shows mixed results with record-high loan portfolio of $8.9 billion
- Collections improved to $1.3 billion, but growth slowed with decreased financed contracts
- Active dealer count declined slightly to 10,149 in Q4 2024
Analyst Sentiment:
TD Cowen maintains Sell rating with $450 price target, citing:
- Weaknesses in loan originations
- Declining net cash flow rates over past seven quarters
- Underperformance of 2022 vintage
- Potential risks in 2023 and 2024 vintages
Price Prediction for Next Week:
Based on technical and fundamental factors:
- Resistance: $492.39
- Support: $450.00
- Target Price: $465-470
Recommendation: SELL
Rationale:
- Stock trading above analyst consensus target of $476.60
- Fundamental weaknesses in loan originations and cash flows
- Technical indicators showing overbought conditions
- Multiple analyst concerns about growth trajectory and vintage performance
Expected price movement: 4-5% downside potential in the next trading week, with stock likely to test support levels around $450.