Should You Buy Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
25.140
1 Day change
-3.72%
52 Week Range
26.140
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who doesn’t want to wait for a better entry. BBVA is in a strong uptrend, but it is short-term stretched (RSI extremely overbought) and trading close to resistance while showing pre-market weakness (-3.06%). With earnings on 2026-02-05 pre-market and at least one major downgrade citing “full-ish” valuation, the risk/reward of buying immediately is not attractive. Better odds come on a pullback toward support (24.16–23.65) or after earnings clarity.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish medium/long-term trend (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) with positive momentum (MACD histogram +0.11 and expanding). However, the stock looks overextended short-term: RSI_6 = 82.6 (overbought), increasing the odds of a near-term pullback or consolidation. Key levels: Pivot 24.98; Support S1 24.16 then S2 23.65; Resistance R1 25.80 then R2 26.31. Current price 25.14 is above pivot and closer to resistance than support, making the immediate entry less favorable for an impatient buyer.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment: Strongly bullish positioning (low put/call open interest ratio at 0.24 and essentially no put volume). Today’s option activity is unusually elevated (today’s volume vs 30-day avg ~713%), suggesting traders are actively leaning bullish or positioning around a near-term catalyst. Volatility: 30D IV ~38.77 vs historical vol ~32.58 (IV modestly elevated), consistent with event positioning ahead of the 2026-02-05 earnings. Net takeaway: options flow is bullish, but elevated/active positioning near resistance can also precede volatility and shakeouts.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
- Upcoming earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-05 pre-market could validate the uptrend if results/guide surprise positively.
- Wall Street bull case focuses on shareholder returns/capital return potential (JPMorgan: potential ~EUR 30B over 3 years) and growth exposure (Mexico/South America).
- Options market positioning is strongly call-leaning (bullish sentiment).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Short-term technicals are stretched: RSI overbought and price is nearer resistance (25.80/26.31) than support (24.16/23.65), making immediate upside harder to capture.
- Pre-market drop (-3.06%) signals near-term selling pressure.
- Valuation concerns are now explicitly raised by RBC (downgrade to Sector Perform; “full-ish” valuation), implying upside may be harder from current levels.
- Earnings on 2026-02-05 can trigger a sharp move either direction; buying right before can lead to unfavorable timing.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew strongly to 11.35B (+11.34% YoY), but profitability growth was modest: Net income 2.84B (+2.30% YoY) and EPS 0.49 (+2.08% YoY). Takeaway: top-line momentum is good, but earnings growth is not accelerating at the same pace, which supports the idea that the stock may already be pricing in a lot of good news.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Mostly positive price target raises and Buy/Overweight views through late 2025 into Jan 2026 (Citi raised PT to EUR 23.50 and stayed Buy; JPMorgan Overweight EUR 23.50; Goldman Buy and added to European Conviction List citing above-sector growth). The notable change is RBC’s 2026-01-28 downgrade to Sector Perform (even while slightly raising PT), specifically arguing valuation is now “full-ish.”
Wall Street pros: strong core revenue outlook, exposure to higher-growth markets (Mexico/LatAm), and attractive shareholder return/capital distribution potential.
Wall Street cons: valuation now less compelling after the run-up; incremental upside may be harder and more dependent on earnings delivery.
Wall Street analysts forecast BBVA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BBVA is 23 USD with a low forecast of 23 USD and a high forecast of 23 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BBVA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BBVA is 23 USD with a low forecast of 23 USD and a high forecast of 23 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 26.110
Low
23
Averages
23
High
23
Current: 26.110
Low
23
Averages
23
High
23
RBC Capital
Outperform -> Sector Perform
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
Reason
RBC Capital
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
downgrade
Outperform -> Sector Perform
Reason
RBC Capital downgraded BBVA to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of EUR 19.75, up from EUR 19.25. While the bank is "best in its class across a number of metrics," further increases in the stock at current valuation levels "could be much harder to come by," the analyst tells investors in a research note. RBC views BBVA's valuation as currently "full-ish."
Citi
Buy
upgrade
2026-01-21
Reason
Citi
Price Target
2026-01-21
upgrade
Buy
Reason
Citi raised the firm's price target on BBVA to EUR 23.50 from EUR 21.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for BBVA
