Should You Buy Alerus Financial Corp (ALRS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
24.360
1 Day change
2.35%
52 Week Range
25.000
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
ALRS is not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who wants to put money to work immediately. Despite a generally bullish longer-term moving-average structure, near-term signals are mixed (weakening MACD), options positioning leans defensive (put-heavy open interest), and earnings are scheduled for today after the close—making the risk/reward unattractive at this exact moment. I would hold off and reassess after the earnings release and guidance clarity.
Technical Analysis
Pre-market price is ~23.97, just below the pivot (24.058). Trend-wise, the moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), which supports a constructive medium/long-term structure. However, momentum is currently weakening: the MACD histogram is negative (-0.0175) and expanding lower, suggesting downside pressure is building. RSI(6) at ~52.5 is neutral (no oversold support). Key levels: support S1 ~23.371 (a break below weakens the setup), deeper support S2 ~22.946; resistance R1 ~24.746 then R2 ~25.171. With price sitting slightly under pivot and MACD deteriorating, the near-term entry is not compelling.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Open interest is put-tilted (put/call OI 1.48: 68 puts vs 46 calls), which typically signals more hedging/defensive sentiment than bullish speculation. Options volume is effectively zero today (put/call volume ratio 0.0), so there is limited real-time conviction from traders. Implied volatility is extremely elevated (30D IV ~92.27 vs historical volatility ~27.89; IV percentile ~90.4), indicating the market is pricing in a meaningful move (often around events like earnings). Net takeaway: sentiment/positioning is cautious, and pricing implies elevated uncertainty into the event window.
• Analyst upside case: Raymond James upgraded to Strong Buy with a $27 target, citing securities portfolio restructuring that improves earnings power and reduces rate risk.
• Financial momentum (last reported quarter) was strong with sharp YoY increases in revenue, net income, and EPS.
• Business mix viewed favorably by some analysts (fee revenue diversity and organic growth prospects).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
• Momentum is weakening short-term (MACD negative and deteriorating) while price is slightly below pivot resistance/decision level.
• Options open interest is put-heavy (defensive tilt), and very high implied volatility reflects uncertainty.
• Analyst sentiment is mixed: a recent downgrade to Market Perform (Hovde) and multiple neutrals with ~$24 targets cap near-term enthusiasm.
• Pattern-based projection provided suggests modest downside bias over the next month (-2.01%).
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to $71.54M (+42.45% YoY), net income increased to $16.78M (+223.67% YoY), and EPS increased to $0.65 (+150% YoY). Overall, this shows strong growth trends and meaningful profitability improvement versus the prior year period.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend is mixed. On 2026-01-05, Raymond James upgraded ALRS to Strong Buy and raised its price target to $27 (from $25) on balance sheet/portfolio optimization and higher earnings estimates for 2026–2027. Two firms (Piper Sandler and Keefe Bruyette) remain Neutral/Market Perform with price targets around $24, and on 2026-01-07 Hovde downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform. Wall Street pros: improved earnings power after portfolio clean-up, reduced interest-rate risk, diversified fee revenue, and organic growth potential. Cons: multiple neutral ratings and ~$24 targets indicate limited consensus upside at current levels and uncertainty around forward guidance.
Wall Street analysts forecast ALRS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALRS is 25 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 27 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ALRS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALRS is 25 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 27 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 23.800
Low
24
Averages
25
High
27
Current: 23.800
Low
24
Averages
25
High
27
Hovde Group
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
Reason
Hovde Group
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-07
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Hovde Group downgraded Alerus Financial to Market Perform from Outperform.
Raymond James
David Long
Outperform -> Strong Buy
upgrade
$25 -> $27
2026-01-05
Reason
Raymond James
David Long
Price Target
$25 -> $27
2026-01-05
upgrade
Outperform -> Strong Buy
Reason
Raymond James analyst David Long upgraded Alerus Financial to Strong Buy from Outperform with a price target of $27, up from $25. The firm cites the company's securities portfolio restructuring in late December for the upgrade. The portfolio "clean-up" drove an increase of 8% to Raymond James' earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027, and allows Alerus to "re-focus its energy on organic growth opportunities," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says the balance sheet optimization improves Alerus' earnings power and reduces its interest rate risk.
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