Should You Buy Allegiant Travel Co (ALGT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
91.440
1 Day change
5.41%
52 Week Range
107.570
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy now for a beginner long-term investor. ALGT is trading near key support (~84.91) in pre-market at 85.35 and is showing improving institutional/hedge-fund accumulation plus a clear positive shift in Wall Street price targets. Near-term technicals are weak (bearish momentum), but options positioning is notably bullish (low put/call ratios) and multiple catalysts (Sun Country deal narrative + upcoming earnings) support a long-term entry at current levels for an investor who doesn’t want to wait for a “perfect” setup.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: Pre-market 85.35 is just above S1 (84.906) and above S2 (82.639), with overhead pivot resistance at 88.575 and R1 at 92.244.
Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is -0.972 and negatively expanding, indicating bearish momentum is still building. RSI(6) is ~32.16, which is weak/near-oversold and suggests selling pressure has been heavy, but it can also imply limited downside vs. reward near support.
Moving averages: Converging moving averages suggests the stock may be transitioning, but it is not confirming an uptrend yet.
Pattern-based short-horizon odds: Similar-pattern analysis shows a 60% probability of additional downside (-3.32% next day, -4.02% next week, -4.08% next month), which aligns with the bearish MACD.
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Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment read: Both open-interest PCR (0.52) and volume PCR (0.35) are low, indicating calls are favored over puts (bullish sentiment / less demand for downside protection).
Positioning/flow: Total OI today 5,590 with today vs 30-day avg OI at 108.12% suggests participation is elevated. Volume is also elevated vs its 30-day average (today_vs_volume_avg_30_day 14.84), reinforcing that traders are paying attention.
Volatility: 30D IV ~58.73 vs historical vol ~82.69 (IV not extreme; IV percentile 44, IV rank 8.01), implying options pricing is not “panic expensive,” consistent with constructive sentiment rather than fear-driven hedging.
Technical Summary
Sell
0
Buy
13
Positive Catalysts
Analyst/catalyst narrative: Wolfe upgraded to Outperform with a $108 PT, explicitly calling the Sun Country acquisition “transformational” and modeling meaningful multi-year EPS upside.
Earnings catalyst: Upcoming QDEC 2025 earnings (after-hours 2026-02-02 per calendar; company call scheduled 2026-02-
can reset expectations if margins/pricing improve.
Operational/brand positive news: WSJ ranking—2nd overall and #1 among value carriers; industry-leading controllable completion rate (99.89%) and few cancellations—supports consumer preference and operational credibility.
Flows: Hedge funds are buying, with reported buying amount up 507.50% over the last quarter.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical backdrop is bearish right now: expanding negative MACD and short-horizon pattern stats point to continued downside risk.
Profitability still pressured in latest reported quarter: net income and EPS remain negative despite YoY improvement.
Margin deterioration: gross margin down YoY, which can limit valuation re-rating if it persists.
Event risk: earnings in early February can cause a sharp reprice if guidance disappoints (especially with recent share strength and raised expectations).
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: 561.932M, down -0.05% YoY (essentially flat to slightly down).
- Net income: -43.574M, improved 18.44% YoY (loss narrowing).
- EPS: -2.41, improved 17.56% YoY (still a loss, but trending better).
- Gross margin: 53.52%, down -4.12% YoY (a clear negative trend).
Takeaway: The quarter shows improving losses (directionally positive), but the business still needs stronger margin recovery to support a sustained long-term rerating.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend (last ~6 weeks): Clearly improving. Multiple firms raised price targets (Susquehanna to $100, Citi to $109, UBS to $90, BofA to $95) and upgrades occurred (BofA to Neutral; Wolfe to Outperform; Deutsche Bank to Buy earlier). Raymond James downgraded from Strong Buy to Outperform primarily on valuation after strength, not on a fundamental breakdown.
Wall Street pros view (pros/cons):
Pros: Growing optimism into airline earnings season; expectations for rebounding demand and easing fuel; Allegiant keeping 2026 capacity growth flat (supports pricing); acquisition of Sun Country framed as transformational with potential multi-year EPS lift.
Cons: Several major firms are still at Neutral (Citi/UBS/Susquehanna), implying upside is recognized but not considered “no-brainer” at all prices; execution risk remains around margin recovery and post-deal integration.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available; insiders reported as neutral with no significant recent trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast ALGT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALGT is 92.7 USD with a low forecast of 65 USD and a high forecast of 109 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ALGT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALGT is 92.7 USD with a low forecast of 65 USD and a high forecast of 109 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 86.750
Low
65
Averages
92.7
High
109
Current: 86.750
Low
65
Averages
92.7
High
109
Wolfe Research
Scott Group
Peer Perform -> Outperform
upgrade
$108
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
Reason
Wolfe Research
Scott Group
Price Target
$108
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
upgrade
Peer Perform -> Outperform
Reason
Wolfe Research analyst Scott Group upgraded Allegiant Travel to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $108 price target.
Wolfe Research
Peer Perform
to
Outperform
upgrade
$108
2026-01-20
Reason
Wolfe Research
Price Target
$108
2026-01-20
upgrade
Peer Perform
to
Outperform
Reason
As previously reported, Wolfe Research upgraded Allegiant Travel (ALGT) to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $108 price target following its announced acquisition of Sun Country Airlines (SNCY), which the firm calls "transformational." The firm estimates 6% EPS accretion for Allegiant prior to synergies and forecasts that Allegiant's earnings can "basically triple" to about $13.50 of EPS at full run-rate synergies by calendar 2029, the analyst tells investors.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for ALGT
