ALCO Should I Buy
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Alico Inc (ALCO) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term focus. While the company has shown some positive developments in real estate and improved EBITDA, its financial performance remains weak, with significant revenue and net income declines. Additionally, technical indicators are mixed, and there are no strong trading signals or significant catalysts to justify immediate investment.
The MACD is negatively expanding, indicating bearish momentum. RSI is neutral at 59.106, suggesting no clear overbought or oversold conditions. Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but the stock is trading near a pivot point of 41.319, with resistance at 42.695 and support at 39.944. Overall, the technical picture is mixed.
The company reported $7.7 million in land sales for Q1 2026, improved net loss compared to the previous year, and positive EBITDA of $2.4 million. A 10-year lease with Bayer Crop Science has resulted in a 97% utilization rate of farmable acres. Real estate development projects with an estimated value of $335-$380 million are underway.
EPS also fell by -62.50% YoY. The MACD indicator is bearish, and there is a 60% chance of a -1.89% decline in the next day and -1.57% in the next week.
In Q1 2026, revenue dropped significantly by -88.83% YoY to $1.89 million. Net income also declined by -62.03% YoY to -$3.48 million, and EPS fell by -62.50% YoY to -0.45. However, gross margin improved significantly to -294.33, up 503.63% YoY, and EBITDA turned positive at $2.4 million.
Roth Capital analyst Gerry Sweeney raised the price target to $42 from $35 and maintained a Buy rating. The analyst highlights Alico's transition from orange production to real estate development, with a total projected asset value of $700 million minus cash burn.
